1. Xavier - The Musketeers have firmly established their dominance in the Atlantic 10 with last year's 30 win season and Elite Eight berth. The Musketeers lost a lot from that squad, with seniors Drew Lavender, Josh Duncan and Stanley Burrell all moving on the careers in Europe. The loss of Duncan will be softened by the fact that starters Derrick Brown and Jason Love will return for their junior seasons. However, the vacancies that Lavender and Burrell leave will force Xavier to play an inexperienced backcourt, particularly early in the season. Four star point guard Terrell Holloway looks to have the upper hand on the starting point guard spot over fellow freshman Mark Lyons and Brad Redford (although to be fair Lyons is more of a two-guard and Redford is best coming off of screens than with the ball. Also Redford seems the most likely candidate of any on the team to redshirt in 08-09 because of his lack of physical strength to compete at the college level at the moment. He undoubtedly can compete with his jump shot at the moment, but taking an extra year to gain the physical strength and then taking B.J. Raymond's role as the designated sharpshooter in 09-10 would not be a bad option for Redford.) Holloway may not get the starting nod out of the gate, as Sean Miller turned to Dante Jackson at times last season, and likely will keep with the experience against major opponents in the Puerto Rico season Tip-Off. If Jackson is the point guard, then Xavier will likely put a lineup on the floor with more height and rebounding ability than any other team that they run up against. Raymond, the sharpshooting wing who has taken criticism from Miller in the past for his defensive shortcomings, is among the three players in their fourth year of collegiate experience that Miller will look to to lead the Musketeers. C.J. Anderson, who averaged 10.9 ppg and 5.9 rpg a season ago in his first season after transferring from Manhattan, is a 6'6" wing who does most of his work inside of the paint. Derrick Brown, the 6'8" NBA prospect on account of his Youtube worthy athletic ability, looks to be the go-to player for this batch of Musketeers. Brown's improving jumpshot complements his ability to put the ball on the floor and get the basket, where he has always been able to finish. Jason Love, in my opinion the most underrated player in the A-10, rounds out the frontcourt. All reports out of Cintas Center say that Love has made huge strides in his offensive ability, including his free throw shooting. With a solid back to the basket game to complement an always plentiful amount of put backs, Love will undoubtedly be among the conference leaders in free throw attempts. With Love and Brown teaming up in the paint the Musketeers posses a formidable defensive presence in the paint.
The Musketeer bench contains quite a few players with the ability to contribute. In the frontcourt Tulsa transfer Jamel McLean looks to spell Brown or Love with quality defensive minutes. Four star freshman center Kenny Frease will likely see significant minutes, albeit probably not in crunch time, and offers a solid defensive presence to go with a good mid range and post-up game. The backcourt will consist of the freshman trio of Lyons and Redford and three star wing Brian Walsh. The wild-card in the equation is the eligibility of Jordan Crawford. If Crawford is deemed eligible then he likely slides into the starting point guard spot for Xavier, giving the Musketeers impressive depth and scoring ability. With Crawford Xavier is a top-20 team with the chance of sneaking into the top 10 with a solid run like the put on in February of last season. Without Crawford Xavier is a fringe top 25 team, and may find some pitfalls in the A-10 schedule on the road with a young backcourt. Either way Xavier should have the athletes and the quality frontcourt to carry them to the regular season title.
2. Charlotte - The 49ers return 73% of their scoring, 87% of their rebounding and 86% of their assists from a team that lost in the first round of the NIT Tournament last year. The key loss is the Leemire Goldwire, the A-10 leading three point shooter from a year ago, who led the team at 18.6 ppg. Coach Bobby Lutz will rely on returning starter DiJaun Harris at point guard to run the team, along with junior Micheal Gerrity. Junior Ian Anderson, freshman Javarris Barnett, sophomore Charles Dewhurst and freshman Shamarr Bowden will all try to replace some of Goldwire's three point shooting output in the long-range oriented offense that Lutz employs. The frontcourt will be the strength of this batch of 49ers. Seniors Lamont Mack and Charlie Coley will team up with sophomore An'Juan Wilderness to form an athletic, yet undersized group (Mack and Coley come in at 6'7" while Wilderness is 6'6"). Mack displayed the ability to challenge for a spot on the A-10 first team at times late in the 07-08 season, his first after transferring from junior college. Wildnerness was an A-10 All-Rookie selection after averaging 8.1 ppg and 4.9 rpg a year ago. The 49ers have the frontcourt strength and experience to make an NCAA appearance in 2009. Lutz may be on the hot seat if he does not deliver, but I see his team supporting him, and even go as far as to award him my preseason pick as A-10 Coach of the Year.
3. Dayton- Is this finally the year that Brian Gregory gets his talent together and makes an NCAA Tournament appearance? If not it could cost him his job. The Flyers have the talent to repeat last season's 14-1 start, but hope do better than an 8-8 record in the A-10. First team All-Conference selection Brian Roberts is gone, along with his 18.4 ppg. The Flyers relied on him heavily, as evidenced by the fact that only 52 percent of the Flyer scoring output is back (but they do return 68 percent of their rebounding). NBA prospect Chris Wright missed 15 conference games last season, but looks to take the mantel from Roberts as the go-to scorer on this year's squad. He will be joined in the frontcourt by junior Kurt Huelsman, a limited offensive player ont he block who averaged 5.9 ppg and 4.0 rpg. Senior Charles Little was hampered by injuries last year, but the athletic 6'6" forward posted 10.5 ppg and 5.2 rpg as a sophomore. The backcourt will be stung by the loss of Roberts, but has experience in the form of athletic wing Marcus Johnson and junior point London Warren. Gregory will also count on contributions from two newcomers in the backcourt in junior college All-American Rob Lowery at the point and highly touted freshman wing Paul Williams. Dayton may have the most athletically gifted team in the conference, but just as in previous years the issue is translating that into wins when it counts late in February. If the Flyers can get through the conference with 11 or 12 wins to complement a respectable non-conference schedule, I believe they will be on the favorable side of the NCAA bubble.
4. Temple- The Owls made a surprising A-10 Tourney run a season ago to make an NCAA appearance. If they want to get back to the Big Dance this season it will be on the shoulders of Preseason A-10 Player of the Year Dionte Christmas. Christmas averaged 19.7 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game while making 104 three point field goals in his first team All- Conference season last year. Christmas will be complemented in the backcourt by a pair of juniors in Ryan Brooks (8.6 ppg) and Luis Guzman (3.9 ppg), with Guzman likely handling the point guard responsibilities. Brooks will be looked upon to fill the shoes of departed swingman Mark Tyndale, who averaged 15.9 points and 7.2 rebounds per game a season ago. The Owls also return a solid frontcourt in 6'9" Lavoy Allen (8.1 ppg, 5.7 rpg) and 7'0" Sergio Olmos (5.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg). The question for the Owls will lie in whether or not the role players will be able to step up and complement the high scoring totals of Christmas. They appear to have the frontcourt firepower to contend for a Conference championship and will likely be looking a few spots higher than last season's 12 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
5. Massachusetts- The Minutemen bring in a new coach, a new offensive system, and lose Conference Player of the Year Gary Forbes. Such an equation would usually spell trouble for most squads in the country. While it does not play in UMass' favor, the events are tollerable because of the pressence of the best backcourt tandem in the A-10. 2007-08 A-10 Most Improved Player Ricky Harris returns for his junior season after posting 18.2 ppg from the shooting guard spot a year ago. He will be getting open looks as a result of Conference Player of the Year candinate Chris Lowe. Lowe is a gifted point guard, who averaged 11.8 points and 6.3 assists per game a season ago. The pair will not have to undergo the growing pains of a complex new offense, as new head man Derek Kellogg's dribble-drive-motions system is fairly simple to pick up. The system also excentuates the perimeter and guard play, which plays into the strengths of this Minutemen squad, as they also add 6'3" Wake Forest transfer Anthony Gurley. If the outstanding backcourt is not playing in the NCAA Tournament in March, the reason may lead back to the weak frontcourt. 7'0" Luke Bonner (3.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg), 6'8" Tony Gaffney (3.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg) and 6'9" freshman Tyrell Lynch are the most attractive options, but the Kellogg offensive system lends itself to a four guard lineup, which UMass fans figure to see regularly. With the deep, talented backcourt the Minutemen figure to be a factor in the A-10. However, they will likely be outrebounded and struggle to defend the paint. As such, they may be left waiting on Selection Sunday once again.
6. Saint Joseph's- Much like Massachusetts, the Hawks return a stellar point guard in Tasheed Carr (10.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 5.8 apg). Instead of complementing their floor leader with a set of solid wings, the Hawks give him the best big man in the conference in Ahmad Nivens. Nivens, a 6'9" NBA prospect, averaged 14.8 points and 5.8 rebounds per game a year ago. The Hawks will need Nivens to assert himself as the go-to man in the halfcourt set if they wish to contend for a spot among the conference elite, as Nivens represents the only frontcourt depth that the Hawks have to speak of. Forwards Pat Calathes and Rob Ferguson departed after last season, taking 44 percent of the scoring and 42 percent of the team's rebounding with them. Phil Martelli will have a bit of experience on the wings with juniors Darrin Govens (9.8 ppg) and Gerrett Williamson (5.3 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.6 apg), who will need to go from role players to consistent performers on this squad. The key to St. Joe's success will be the maturation of Nivens' frontcourt mates, sophomore Idris Hilliard (1.2 ppg) and three star freshman Bryant Irwin (6'8" SF) and two star recruit A.J. Rodgers (6'5" SF). If one of the triumvirate of frontcourt players can establish himself as a compliment to Nivens befoe Conference season the Hawks may have the firepower to make an NCAA run like last season. Overall though, I would say that this team looks to have too big of a hole in the frontcourt and too little depth. I would say they will be able to make some noise in the NIT Tournament, however.
7. Richmond- The biggest disapointment of the 2008-09 season for Spiders fans has likely already happened. The news in July that third team All A-10 center Dan Geriot will be out for the season with a torn ACL severly hampers hopes in Richmond. A-10 Rookie of the Year Kevin Anderson (10.7 ppg, 3.0 apg) will look to lead the Spiders in Geriot's absence from the point guard spot. Anderson is only part of a strong backcourt for the Spiders that includes juniors David Gonzalvez (11.7 ppg) and Ryan Butler (5.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.4 apg). While the backcourt will consistent, the frontcourt turns from a strength into a question mark without Geriot. 6'9" sophomore Justin Harper (3.3 ppg) and fellow sophomore, 6'5" Small forward, Kevin Smith (4.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg) offer the most experience, while coach Chris Mooney will look for immediate contributions from 6'10" Australian center Josh Duinker and 6'8" forward Darrius Garrett. The loss of Geriot is exacerbated by the relative weakness of other A-10 frontcourts, and relative backcourt strengths of those same squads. The silver lining in the Geriot injury is that it will likely give the young frontcourt players a chance for significant and meaningful minutes, which will likely pay off in 2009-10, when Richmond appears to be the extremely early favorites in the conference. As for 2008-09, the Spiders just don't have the frontcourt strength to match a strong backcourt, and will likely be back at the College Basketball Invitational or the NIT come March.
8. Saint Louis- Rick Majerus has quickly become the face of the Saint Louis basketball program, but the portly coach boasts a squad with a pair of solid guards to lead this year's batch of Billikens. The senior duo of point man Kevin Lisch (14.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.1 apg) and Tommie Liddell (12.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.1 apg) are the stabilizing figures for a team in transition to the new Majerus brand of basketball. Sophomore guard Paul Eckerle (3.8 ppg, 1.3 apg)) will likely spell the backcourt duo, but not for long. Senior forward Barry Eberhardt (6.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg) is the only other returning Billiken from a season ago, a loss of 43 percent of the scoring output, 44 percent of the rebounding output and 41 percent of the assists from a season ago.With so many players leaving the program Majerus welcomes in eight freshman to the fold, many of whom will be counted on to play major roles. The most prominent of the bunch is 6'10" Brett Thompson, out of Vienna, Ill. Thompson possess the height and skill to be molded into a classic Majerus big man, perhaps a poor man's Keith Van Horn. I am picking Thompson to take home my Conference Rookie of the Year because he will likely start from day one, and contribute in those minutes. Other three star recruits include 6'9" center Willie Reed, 6'5" wing Kyle Cassity and 5'11" point guard Kwamian Mitchell. To be honest, this team was the hardest for me to slot, because you know at some point that Majerus will have a breakthrough year and make the NCAA Tournament with a squad that may not have the talent. This year's team appears to be a year away, but they have the feeling of possibly being the most dangerous team in the conference. I would put the Billikens down for an NIT berth, and the potential to cause some damage, possibly by winning the A-10 Tournament.
9. George Washington- The Colonials are another dangerous team with postseason aspirations. Senior forward Rob Diggs (13.9 ppg, 7.7 rpg) is one of four returning starters for GW, a team returning 74 percent of their scoring, 86 percent of their rebounding and 70 percent of their assists. Diggs is joined in the frontcourt by senior Wynton Witherspoon (11.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and junior Damian Hollis (9.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg). With the experienced frontcourt the Colonials will likely be able to control the glass against most opponents. The questions for GW come in with the frontcourt. Sophomore Xavier Alexander (4,0 ppg, 3.8 rpg) returns at shooting guard, and Junior Travis King (5.7 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 2.4 apg in 2006-07). King suffered a season ending knee injury last August, leaving the Colonials without a point guard for the season. If King is back, and healthy, then GW has as strong of a starting lineup as any team in the conference. The bench for GW is a bit of a question spot. Senior wing Noel Wilmore (6.0 ppg) will likely spell Diggs and Alexander while the frontcourt depth is left to offensive liability sophomore Jabari Edwards (0.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and sophomore center Jospeph Katuka (2.0 ppg). The Colonials were a major letdown last season after consecutive NCAA appearances. Coach Carl Hobbs will likely get his team back into winning ways this season, but they will have to count on avoiding the injury bug and a string of strong performances from Diggs in order to make an NCAA push. Perhaps in invite to the College Basketball Invitational or the NIT would suffice as an improvement over last season's 9-17 finish.
10. La Salle- The Explorers barely missed out on postseason eligibility last season at 15-17, and have to look to improve on that figure this season without three point specialist and First Team All Conference guard Darnell Harris (16.6 ppg, 123 three point field goals, 47.9 percent from three). Harris is the only notable departure, though, as the Explorers return 73 percent of their scoring, 90 percent of their rebounding and 79 percent of their assists. The strength of this group of Explorers will be the frontcourt. Senior Paul Johnson (6.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg), junior Yves Mekongo Mbala (8.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg) and Sophomore Jerrell Williams (9.1 ppg, 6.4 rpg) are all returning starters. They will be backed up by 6'9" Mississippi State transfer Vernon Goodridge and 6'6" junior Kimmani Barrett (7.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg). The backcourt has a few less bodies, but perhaps an equavalency of talent. Harris' backcourt mate 6'5" Rodney Green (13.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 3.4 apg) is back to run the show. Green will be joined by 6'5" fellow junior Ruben Guillandeaux (7.7 ppg, 2.1 apg) and 6'3" sophomore Kyle Griffin (3.5 ppg, 1.4 apg). The Explorers are deep for certain, which will keep them in every game in the A-10. The question is whether they have the experience for that depth to translate into wins in February and early March when everything is on the line. This should be a continued improvement for coach John Giannini, with the outside chance of a repeat of the 2005-06 third place finish. However, I see a postseason berth as a solid estimate for these Explorers, and an extremely bright future for the program in 09-10.
11. Rhode Island- The Rams had a truly roller-coaster season a year ago, starting 19-3, before losing nine of their final 11 games. The ills caused by the late collapse might not be cured this season, as the Rams have to deal with the loss of forward Will Daniels and point guard Parfait Bitee. Rhody still has coach Jim Baron's son Jimmy Barron, a senior who shot 40.6 percent from three and averaged 14.2 points per game a year ago. Baron will be joined in the backcourt by junior Keith Cothran (7.3 ppg), without much depth behind the duo. The frontcourt will feel the loss of Will Daniels, but returns seniors Kahiem Seawright (9.2 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and Jason Francis (2.6 ppg, 2.0 rpg). 6'6" junior Lamonte Ulmer (7.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg) will likely shift from the bench to the starting lineup, with junior Delroy James (3.3 ppg, 2.4 rpg) providing depth. The Rams will feel the departures of Daniels and Bitee (45 percent of the points, 34 percent of the rebounds, 41 percent of the assists from a year ago). A repeat of last year's NIT berth is probably above expectartions.
12. Duquesne- Dukes coach Ron Everhart had the makings of a solid A-10 contender in place for this season, that was until center Shawn James and guard Kojo Mensah decided to declare for the NBA draft. Neither player got a sniff from any NBA team, and the Dukes were left without 51 percent of their scoring, 39 percent of their rebounding and 39 percent of their assists. Without James and Mensah senior point Aaron Jackson (9.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.5 apg), sophomore forward Damian Saunders (6.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and sophomore wing Bill Clark (8.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg) will be looked to as the leaders of this team. Jackson can really get out and defend on the perimeter, and I am choosing him as my defensive player of the year. Senior guard Phillip Fayne (3.5 ppg) adds depth along with three star freshmen wings Melquan Bolding and Rodrigo Peggau. Sophomore David Theis (1.8 ppg) is the only other returning frontcourt option for Everhart to turn to, so a host of freshman will likely also see time. With James and Mensah this team could have made postseason noise. Without them their season will likely be done by early March.
13. St. Bonaventure- The Bonnies only return three players from a team that went 8-22 a year ago so expectations are reasonably low in Olean. The future of the program may be brighter than the past, with a gaggle of transfers. Point guard Ray Blackburn (Division II Junior College All-American), wing Lewis Leonard (25.2 ppg at San Bernadino Valley Community College), wing Jonathan Hall (MVP of the Division I National Junior College Tournament), wing Chris Matthews (3.7 ppg in 06-07 at Washington State) and forward Maurice Thomas (9.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg in 06-07 at UTEP). The group joins returning starters wing Tyler Benson (5.2 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and center D'Lancy Carter (6.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg). When you factor in athletic freshman shooting guard Michael Davenport out of Moeller High in Cincinnati, the talent level has begun to rise for St. Bonaventure. The problem is that there is not much talent on the interior, so the Bonnies will likely get dominated on the boards consistently. Also the players that Mark Schmidt has brought in will need to gel and find playing time amonst themselves rather quickly. I don't really like the equation, but at least the Bonnies are improving their talent level. This just is not the year where they make a push for winning basketball.
14. Fordham- I really don;t understand Fordham basketball. The team is set in one of, if not the best, basketball cities in the world. The can offer recruits an outstanding education, while staying close to home. Yet, they consistently struggle to bring in players, in large part, I suspect, because the players would be downgrading in terms of facilities by playing at Rose Hill Gym. To their credit, the Rams do bring in three three star guards this season in Trey Blue, Alberto Estwick and Jiovanny Fontan. The trio will need to carry a heavy workload on this Rams squad that waved goodbye to 69 percent of their points, 68 percent of their rebounding and 69 percent of their assists. Junior guard Brenton Butler (11.0 ppg, 3.4 rpg) is the lone returning starter. Junior forward Ryan Munson (5.5 ppg) and Senior forward Chris Benthel (3.1 ppg) were really the only other returning Rams to see minutes on last season' 12-17 team. Coach Dereck Whittenburg has his hands tied a bit until the Rams can get into a new gym (yeah, Rose Hill has history, but I mean come on). As such the celler dwelling Rams will likely continue to be so again this season, and further into the future.
To recap, my picks are:
Regular season champion: Xavier
A-10 Player of the Year: Deonta Christmas (Temple)
A-10 Rookie of the Year: Brett Thompson (SLU)
A-10 Coach of the Year: Bobby Lutz (Charlotte)
A-10 Defensive Player of the Year: Aaron Jackson (Duquesne)
The A-10 looks to be a deep league again this season, with as many as 10 teams entering the season with postseason hopes. It may end up being another wild year in the A-10.
