Sunday, April 26, 2009

Pat Kelsey -- the perfect hire for Mack

In his final move to complete his coaching staff Xavier men's basketball coach Chris Mack is expected to announce the hiring of former Wake Forest assistant coach Pat Kelsey in the coming days as the new Associate Head Coach of the men's basketball program.
Kelsey, a 1998 Xavier graduate, had a stellar recruiting resume at Wake Forest, reeling in top talent such as Al Faruq-Aminu, Tony Woods and Ari Stewart.
In addition, Kelsey has been noted as an excellent in-game tactician, and excels in post instruction--both areas of concern for the Xavier staff after James Whitford departed for Arizona along with Sean Miller.
While unlikely to pay immediate recruiting dividends in the 2009 season because of the timing of the hiring--after the spring contact period with recruits--Kelsey's contacts in the Southeast, combined with the effort that Mack has been putting into the area, could produce talent as early as 2010. The hiring will certainly give Xavier a boost with previous southern prospects, such as Atlanta's Donte Williams.
The hiring of Kelsey gives Xavier one of the most formidable staffs in the country on the recruiting trail, consisting of a four man team with impressive resume's in different regions of the country.
'Bino' Ranson has strong connections in the talent-rich Baltimore area from his time as an AAU coach in the region, and also possesses the ability to parlay those ties to strong relationships in the Northeast. Travis Steele has roots in the Indiana AAU circuit, as he was a head coach for the preeminent Indiana grassroots program, Indiana Elite, for six years. Kelsey is one of the most respected recruiters in the country, able to draw from the Southeast for Wake Forest, but also extending his web incrementally as his stature grows.
To top it off, Xavier has a zealous recruiter as their head man. Mack has been able to produce talent from Xavier's immediate recruiting pipeline--Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania--in his time as an assistant, and has ties to each of the other hotbeds that his assistants will be dipping into from his tenure on the Xavier staff.
Aside from the future concerns of the program, bringing in Kelsey makes Xavier a better team on the court in 2009-10 by easing the in-game burden on Mack's shoulders. Mack is an excellent in-game coach, but had two fairly inexperienced assistants on his staff already in Ranson and Steele. Kelsey has been through the fire as an assistant in the ACC for five seasons, and will be a strong voice in Mack's ear during critical situations in 09-10.
With a strong foundation now in place on the sidelines, Xavier can focus on completing their roster for next season--highlighted by efforts to land previous commitment Kevin Parrom--and get to work on living up to Final Four-level expectations.
In the meantime, Mack is breathing a sigh of relief. He has landed his first big-time recruit... and potentially his most important.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Some possible Assistant Coaches

Here is a quick rundown of two possible assistant coaches on Chris Mack's staff:
Jeff Boals
-Excellent recruiter who has been the lead recruiter at Akron over the past three seasons, helping the Zips to three straight MAC Championship games, including a MAC Tournament title in 2009.
-Was responsible for bringing in four-star center Zeke Marshall in 2009 (rated the No. 39 prospect in the class by Rival.com) as well as the best recruiting class in the MAC in 2008.
-Has ties to Chris Mack and Xavier through former Xavier assistant, and current St. Bonaventure head coach Mark Schmidt. Boals was an assistant to Schmidt from 2004-2006 at Robert Morris. Also, Mack and Boals have gotten to know one another well by recruiting the same tract of land, as both were the lead recruiters for the Ohio area for their respective programs.
-Channeling the appeal of recruiting under Akron head coach Keith Dambrot, former head coach of LeBron James at Akron’s St. Vincent, St. Mary’s High School, Boals has been able to woo some of Ohio’s best talent to take a peek at Akron. Top 100 recruits Adrein Payne, J.D. Weatherspoon both had Akron high on their list in large part because of James, and had their interest augmented by Boals. Xavier would figure to have an excellent chance to re-recruit Weatherspoon with Boals on board, and would now figure to be on the inside track with Payne as Boals was also the lead man in attracting the 6’10” big man’s interest to Akron.
-Boals is also an excellent teacher of post players, something that Xavier has prided itself on in sending Tyrone Hill, Brian Grant, James Posey and David West to the NBA. Boals will take the place of James Whitford, who handled the post duties for Xavier under former head coach Sean Miller.
-If Boals is the man to take over the No. 2 roll on the Xavier staff, look for him to lead Xavier’s recruiting efforts for 2011 forward Markus Crider and guard Stevie Taylor.

Travis Steele
-Spent the 2008-09 season as Xavier’s Director of Basketball Operations after spending three years at Indiana University. Steele was originally the video coordinator at IU, but was promoted to Assistant Coach in February of 2008 in the fallout of head coach Kelvin Sampson’s NCAA recruiting violations.
-Despite being only 24 years old, Steele has deep recruiting ties in the Hoosier state and the Chicago area that originated with his coaching positions with the Speice/Indy Heat Adidas AAU program from 2001-2006. While not a college athlete, Steele chose instead to sharpen his coaching skills during his years at Butler (2001-2004), not only coaching on the AAU circuit, but assisting at Ben Davis High School in Indianapolis
-After college, Steele spent two seasons as an assistant at Wabash College, before moving on to the staff at IU.
-Steele is widely recognized as an outstanding asset in game preparation, with experience beyond his years in film study, and practice preparation.
-With Steele on board, look for Xavier to go after 2011 Indiana recruits Justin Gant, Jeremiah Davis, Kendall Griffin and Darwin Davis.

Xavier hires Chris Mack

Eight days after Sean Miller vacated the position to head to the University of Arizona, Xavier University settled their search for a new head men's basketball coach with an in-house hire. Former assistant coach Chris Mack will move one seat down the bench to take over the head role.Mack, a 1992 Xavier graduate, has spent the last five seasons as Miller’s top assistant, and had been drawing interest in the past few years from a number of programs as a head coaching candidate.
While the biggest question surrounding Mack will be his lack of previous collegiate head coaching experience, his résumé is not devoid of accomplishments.
After serving as head coach at Mt. Notre Dame High School from 1995-1999, where he was named Cincinnati Post Coach of the Year in 1996, Mack moved on to three years as Xavier’s Director of Basketball Operations. From there he joined the coaching staff of his former head coach Skip Prosser at Wake Forest for three seasons, before returning to Xavier as the top assistant for Miller in 2004.
Over those five seasons Mack has proven himself to be a capable recruiter, heading Xavier’s fruitful efforts to sign Jamel McLean, Kenny Frease, Brad Redford and Brian Walsh.
As a result, many of those players—including Frease and Dante Jackson publicly—have thrown their support behind Mack in the time period between Miller’s departure and Mack’s hiring.
With the stability of the current Xavier team intact, Mack can immediately focus on bringing in future contributors to the Xavier program.
Mack has already been in touch with 2010 Xavier recruits J.D. Weatherspoon and Adrein Payne, AAU teammates for the Ohio Basketball Club. If Mack is able to add top-flight recruiters to his coaching staff—such Akron associate head coach Jeff Boals, who not only has a strong rapport with Mack, but with many Ohio prospects such as Weatherspoon and Payne—he will be able to remain on course with the talent level of the program.

Monday, April 13, 2009

B.J. Raymond impressing at Portsmouth

Xavier senior B.J. Raymond was invited to the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament this week. The tournament is meant to celebrate the nation's top collegiate senior talent, and serves as an adequate showcase for the NBA Draft scouts in attendance. Here is a take on how Raymond is performing from NBADraftExpress.com:

B.J. Raymond had yet another outstanding showing, knocking down another four 3-pointers (bringing him to 8 so far, on just 11 attempts) for an efficient 16 points. Raymond is one of the most vocal players you’ll find here on the defensive end, acting as somewhat of a captain for his team on this end of the floor, and really setting the tone for his teammates himself with the work he puts in. Despite not showing great lateral quickness, Raymond moves his feet exceptionally well and can really anticipate, playing a solid, fundamental brand of perimeter defense, and pretty much shutting down whoever he’s been asked to guard. His ball-handling appears to be average at best, and he seems to have problems finishing around the basket when driving in traffic, although he was able to finish nicely through contact in a few transition situations. Sitting right next to his team’s bench, you could constantly hear his voice during timeouts. It’s no surprise that his team is in the finals despite having likely the tournament’s worst “point guard” (the ultra selfish and constant showoff David Holston) running the show for them. It’s becoming more and more obvious why Raymond was such a winner as a college player in his time at Xavier.

I still think that it is a long shot for Raymond to make an NBA roster, simply because of his limitations on defense and in driving to the basket. But with the strong shooting performances that he has put on in front of the scouts in Portsmouth and at the NABC All-Star game in Detroit he has positioned himself to be a second round draft choice--Xavier's first since Romain Sato in 2004. Ultimately, Raymond's athleticism, scoring ability and leadership qualities should provide him with a similarly successful career to Sato.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Xavier starting the interview process

With multiple alumni and current players backing him for the vacant head coaching position, Xavier assistant coach Chris Mack has become the first person to formally interview with the Xavier administration.
Mack, a 1992 Xavier graduate and Cincinnati native, has spent the last five seasons as former Xavier coach Sean Miller's top assistant.
Mack also has been an active recruiter under Miller, playing a major role in the recruitment of current Musketeers Kenny Frease, Brad Redford and Brian Walsh.
Mack has received the backing of notable former Xavier players such as 2003 National Player of the Year David West and all time leading scorer Byron Larkin. If hired, he would likely be able to keep the current roster in tact, as Jackson and Frease have voiced their affinity for Mack publicly, and others have opined for the stability of a familiar coach.
All of this could make for a quick search for the Xavier brass, something that athletic director Mike Bobinski stated as a priority on Monday.

Monday, April 6, 2009

Sean Miller to Arizona timeline

Wow! What a day!
Here is a rough timeline of the events from today, as I understood and observed them (times are rough estimates, as I was not checking my watch closely):

Early Morning- Mike Bobinski drives to Sean Miller’s house and has a heartfelt meeting with the coach. The two had talked last night, and had been in constant communication about the situation. Miller had gone to bed with doubts in his mind, and woken up still torn. Bobinski described the conversation as emotional, but ultimately left with his coaching situation up in the air.

Noon- Miller calls Bobinski to inform him that he will be leaving for Arizona. Presumably, Miller and his wife Amy discussed the situation all morning, and ultimately decided to pull the trigger.

1:30 p.m.- The alarm goes out to the players to come to Cintas for a meeting, but they are not told what the meeting is for. Word got out quickly, however, and any already knew before they got in the locker room that Miller was leaving.

1:35 p.m.- As players trickle in they all turn down comment with the media, and head straight for the locker room.

1:40 p.m.- Five players—Dante Jackson, Kenny Frease, Jamel McLean, Derrick Brown and Mark Lyons—are here already. Lyons was the last to arrive, and walked into the locker room for a brief moment, before exiting quickly, chased by Kenny Frease. “This is bull----!,” Lyons yelled. Frease tried to get Lyons to come back into the locker room, but Lyons responded, “No man! F--- this.”

1:50 p.m.- Jackson, Frease and the newly arrived Brian Walsh head outside the locker room to meet others at the West Entrance of Cintas.
“We came to play for Miller,” Jackson said. “Anytime you lose a head coach it is going to be a blow.”

“We just have to regroup and go from here,” Frease said. “Coach Miller was a big part of coming to Xavier, but [potentially leaving] is not something that I want to talk about right now.”

1:55 p.m.- The players are called back inside, presumably to avoid us media folk.

2:00 p.m.- The players claim to be here for a 3:30 lift, but it is revealed the coaches will meet with the players after Bobinski breaks the news to them around 2:30.

2:05 p.m.- There are fans gathering outside of the West Entrance, one of whom has a pair of Arizona shorts that is being stomped on. Obviously, the student body is unhappy.

2:10 p.m.- B.J. Raymond shows up, one of the final few to trickle in. He does stop and talk to the media, unlike some of his younger, more shaken teammates.

Raymond: “Last year there were big things about coach getting ready to leave, and he told us that he was not going to stay forever. You have to be happy for coach. We knew that Xavier was not a place that you want to end [your career]. So he went down to Arizona, they offered him about twice as much, and that is good for him. You can’t be mad at him, but I am sad to see him leave… I talked to the younger guys and told them that it did not look too promising because when I was here he never took a visit. I gotta go in there and calm down the younger guys… Basketball is a business. You have to look at it in those terms. You have to perform when you are a player, and you have to perform when you are a coach. And he has performed very well. When you perform well you deserve things; coach deserves this… Even if I was not leaving, you can’t be mad at him… I’m not surprised. I expected it when he took the visit. Something was going down. If he wasn’t leaving this year, I knew that it would probably be next year, simply because he took the visit. But this year’s team is going to be a great team, and they are going to go make a deep run. If it wasn’t this year, it was going to be next year.”

2:15 p.m.- Jordan Crawford had walked in with Raymond, but had a similar reaction to Lyons earlier, and stormed out of Cintas Center without saying a word. This is the second time in two years that Crawford’s coach has left him, and you have to feel for the kid.

2:20 p.m.- Brad Redford is not exactly thinking clearly at the moment, as he forgot the code to the locker room (that he basically sleeps in).

2:25 p.m.- C.J. Anderson just showed up with his son Antoine. He learned about the move from Crawford as Crawford was disgustedly walking back to his dorm room. Anderson said he plans to go talk to Crawford, and try to keep his head on straight, along with the rest of the team.

Anderson: “I thought coach Miller would be here for a while because he signed an extension.… Congratulations to coach Miller and his family. Hopefully he does as well there as he did here… I understand it is a business. He took a lot of things into account. I trust coach Miller, he is a smart guy, and he must have felt like this was the move that he needed to make… I think coach Mack knows the players, and it would be a better transition. The players know him, and he knows the system. It would be a comfortable transition, so I definitely think that Xavier should take a good look at coach Mack.”

2:30 p.m.- Not much is doing here, as the players have come in and the media has been backed far away from the locker room. It would seem from the brief snippets we have gotten so far that the older players always had this moment in the back of their mind, and anticipated it. They knew that this day would come, and the Mack would likely be the guy, so they were not that worried about it. The younger players are more emotional, however. That is likely because they have not heard Miller’s speech about this not being his final destination.

2:31 p.m.- Word is the players are in a meeting now with Mike Bobinski, and are being told what has happened, and what will happen.

2:40 p.m.- The meeting is out, and a select group of players have chosen to speak to the media: Jackson, Jason Love and Kenny Frease. I did not get to Love in time but here are the other two:

Jackson: “It’s tough. I feel terrible for our guys. We are all disappointed and hurt. You hope and pray that he sticks around for as long as you are going to be there. We knew that coach Miller was a hot commodity, and we wish him the best. We are looking forward to continuing our success as a program. Xavier has not been a program that is made by the coach. Mr. Bobinski will initiate the search, and bring in the right guy for our program… Our goal is to make it to the Final Four, and my mindset was working on making myself and our team better to reach that. You hear the rumor and I didn’t pay much attention to it… I knew he wasn’t going to be here forever. I didn’t think he was going to leave this year. If he was going to leave it was going to be last year. I have a lot of respect for him, he recruited me, and he does things the right way… We haven’t spoken to [Miller] yet. We will a little later, and I am looking forward to that… Coach Mack is obviously going to be in the running. He graduated from here. He is ready to be a head coach. I’m going to sit back and trust our athletic director to make the right decision… Xavier is going to be Xavier, and always put a good team on the floor. We are going to play for our program, our fans, and our family. It doesn’t matter who is the coach on the sidelines… A lot of guys are upset right now, and a lot of things are being said out of emotion. They came for coach miller and also to wear ‘Xavier’ across their uniforms… The mood was disappointment in the locker room… We asked questions of Mr. Bobinski, and we will have questions for our staff later… We have to take it in stride, be upbeat and positive. This program is still going to be here, and we are doing pretty damn good.”

Frease: “In my year here, you come to Xavier for Miller. He was a great coach and recruiter. I fell in love with Xavier, and the traditions they have here. It makes it hard to think about leaving… We have big goals for next year. The talent is there, but it just depends. That is the worst part because you don’t know what is going to happen with the players… I have gotten to know coach pretty well, and there has to be something at Arizona. I don’t feel let down… It’s tough because it is a business.”

3:00 p.m.- Lyons had returned from storming out before, and is now ready to leave again before the 4:00 meeting with Miller. He is stopped by Frease again, who asked him to stay and listen to Miller. “What can he possibly say to me?,” asked Lyons. “Why should I listen to him?”

3:15 p.m.- A lot more waiting here, as Miller is expected to address the team at 4:00. Brown, McLean, Lyons, Anderson (C.J. and Antoine), Stephen Duckett and Jackson are all hanging around in the Auxiliary gym, casually shooting. Jackson leaves to make a phone call, muttering, “They are not better than us. They are just more appealing.”

3:25 p.m.- The press conference has been set for 4:30, with Miller and Bobinski to speak

3:30 p.m.- High school junior J.D. Weatherspoon has de-committed from Xavier. Weatherspoon is a very emotional kid, and likely denounced Xavier in a spur of the moment decision. I tend to believe Xavier still has a good chance with him if they were to hire Mack, especially if Mack hires the right assistant coaches. As for other recruits, I would assume that Emanuel Richardson is already picking out a house in Tucson with the way things played out. So he might end up taking 2009 recruit Kevin Parrom, 2010 recruit Jordan Latham and 2011 recruit Nadir Tharpe out to Tucson with the staff.

4:00 p.m.- The Xavier coaching staff, minus Miller, has addressed the Xavier team in the locker room. After the meeting James Whitford and Terrell Holloway shared a hug, with Whitford tearing up at the moment.

4:05 p.m.- Whitford is in a more jovial mood when talking to Raymond, with Chris Mack also in the conversation. Whitford is nowhere to be seen, but Whitford (and later Miller) and director of basketball operations Travis Steele are wearing neutral clothing—odd for men that wear Xavier apparel every day to work. Mack is wearing a Xavier polo shirt, however. Whitford jokes with Raymond that he should come out to Tucson to be an assistant coach, since he has been one already for four years. He says they have one spot open on the bench, leading me to believe that Mack may have already been given the job.

4:15 p.m.- Miller arrives with his son Braden. He has not addressed the team personally yet, as he was not part of the meeting in the locker room earlier.

4:25 p.m.- Mack is stalking around the media room, hanging out in the back and talking with administrators. He is giving me the impression that he may be introduced as the head coach here any moment, and is ready to speak. One of the other writers asked him if he wanted to hop up on the podium and accept the job, to which he just laughed and shook his head.

4:27 p.m.- Frease and Jackson are at it again, speaking outside the press room. Both are reiterating how they are disappointed, but not upset. Frease mentioned how it is going to be tough to lose Whitford, who was the post-player coach.

4:30 p.m.- Miller comes in to the press conference. I will not do any transcribing, since it has already been widely disseminated. I will, however, say that the go-to quote about Xavier not being able to win a national title was overblown. “I would never leave Xavier unless I felt that it was a place where I can win a national championship. I don’t want to say that you can’t win one here. But it is a place that has done it before, and has that quarter of century worth of excellence stamp to it.” Miller was saying that he was attracted by the tradition of a place like Arizona, of which a championship is a part. He was not slighting Xavier, merely pointing out that the place he is going to has been to the mountaintop. In my opinion, the big moment was when Miller choked up when talking about Bobinski, and what he means to him.

4:40 p.m.- Bobinski is on the stand now, and I will not get much into what he said, either. I will say that he did not sound like he had made up his mind on a coach, but that is what you have to say if you are an Athletic Director, of which there are few better than Mike Bobinski.

5:00 p.m.- After the press conference Crawford, McLean and Redford were in the Auxiliary gym shooting around. Bobinski went in to talk to Crawford, who was obviously still shaken. The doors were closed, but Bobinski repeatedly made motions indicating he was talking about the program growing in the future.


Whew! Action packed couple of hours.
My general thoughts are that Xavier is still in a great position moving forward. Sure, the Musketeers might lose some recruits for next season and beyond. But overall, the talent level at Xavier will be extremely high next season, and will continue at that level for the next few years. Crawford, Frease and Jackson would figure to still be on campus next year, and that three some alone should bridge the two year gap that any coach would need to infuse his own recruited talent.
Also, another conference title, and a deep NCAA run next year will keep the recruits coming. I am very confident in saying that Xavier will ultimately hire Mack. Mack has strong ties within the state of Ohio, and on the recruiting scene in general, to where he will be able to fill his staff effectively and his roster will remain loaded.
Still, for many April 6, 2009 will go down as one of the gloomier days on the campus of Xavier University, both literally and figuratively.

Sunday, April 5, 2009

Why Miller would think of leaving

Over the past few days as news has trickled out that Sean Miller is seriously entertaining an offer to become the next head coach at the University of Arizona many Xavier fans have been left scratching their head.
The Musketeers have a top-10 caliber team returning in 2009-10, a top-flight schedule and recruiting commitments lined up down the road. Why would Miller want to leave that situation for Arizona, who will have a bare cupboard after the expected departures of Jordan Hill and Chase Buddinger to the NBA?
While the situation at Xavier is still very enticing to Miller, and still might hold up to a comparison with any job in the country at the end of the day, the position at Arizona warrants a look from Miller simply because it suits all of the things that he desires in a dream job. Here is a rough list of three things that Miller would have to have to leave Xavier, and how Arizona matches up:
Membership in a winnable major conference- Miller wants to be able to play a schedule where his team will be tested every time out on the floor, and where he can win 19 games and still make the Tournament in his first few seasons. Certainly, he would like to eventually get to a point where he can dominate a conference on a year-to-year basis the way that North Carolina does in the ACC or UCLA does in the PAC-10. He has expressed to people close to him in the past that the Big East does not seem like a place where he could achieve that kind of success, with the depth and talent that is in the conference on a yearly basis. That is part of the reason why a return to his alma mater, Pittsburgh, is not as attractive to him as many national pundits might think.
Why Arizona? The Wildcats are part of the PAC-10 conference. While UCLA will be difficult to dismantle from the top spot in the conference, Miller could quickly mold the program into perennial contenders, hopefully joining UCLA in the top tier above contenders USC, Oregon, Stanford and Arizona State.
A Primary athletic focus on basketball- Miller wants his program to be the main money maker for the athletic department, and thus be given preference when asking for monetary improvements to the basketball program. He has such a situation set up at Xavier, but it is not as strong as it could be. The men’s basketball team is the only program turning a profit at XU, and carries the weight for everything from women’s basketball to golf. Going to programs such as Virginia or Georgia where he would be given the leftover money from the football program was not as attractive to Miller as staying at Xavier and getting the first pick of athletic funding.
Why Arizona? Arizona would not only give Miller the free reign in spending that he needs, and the total commitment that he demands, but would be able to take away some of the sting of carrying the entire athletic department. The UA football team has been on the rise in recent years, and would be able to provide a solid second income for the athletic program, possibly covering the costs of the rest of the sports.
Program Prestige- Miller wants to be able to go to a program that has won before, and has a fan base that is used to success. At Xavier, he enjoys celebrating the firsts, and striving to be the first Musketeer coach to reach a Final Four. However, being in a place with championship banners, and a name that is on the minds of pundits nationwide is always appealing.
Why Arizona? The Wildcats won the NCAA title in 1997, and have made 25 straight NCAA Tournaments. Their alumni have dotted NBA and international rosters for years. The program can reasonably be considered among the elite in the country. Miller would likely embrace having the legendary Lute Olson around campus in the same fashion that Ben Howland has with John Wooden at UCLA and Roy Williams has with Dean Smith at North Carolina.

For Miller, taking a look at Arizona made sense now because the list of schools that fit even this small list of criteria here is very small. Arizona is one of maybe 10 places in the country—some of which, such as North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky and UCLA don’t figure to be hiring soon—that fit a description for a school that Miller would leave for.
Speculation in recent days that Miller may bolt for more money is unfounded—the man did not even know how much his yearly salary was a year ago.
He simply got an opportunity to pursue a job that met his strict criteria. In reality, I would be scratching my head if Miller did not at least explore such a unique opportunity.

Taking a logical look at what Xavier would be left with after Miller

Reports are circulating today that Sean Miller is on a plane to Albuquerque, NM to discuss accepting the head coaching job at the University of Arizona. The job would seem to suit Miller’s desires for a big-time program in a winnable conference (non-Big East), that has the commitment to basketball as the primary objective.
If Miller were to take the position, something I would put as a probability at this point, he would not completely debilitate the Xavier program; much the opposite.
Xavier already has a head-coach-in-waiting in Chris Mack, who has held the title of ‘next-Xavier-assistant-to-become-a-successful-coach’ for a few years now. "Chris is ready to become a head coach. He has a great basketball mind and is an excellent recruiter," was Miller’s assessment of Mack in preseason media guide.
The pedigree as a successful head coach at Mt. Notre Dame High School, on the Xavier staff from 1999-2001, on the Wake Forest staff for three years after that, and with Miller at Xavier ever since has set Mack up for an opportunity as a head coach. There were even whispers this offseason that Xavier would not be able to keep Mack, as he would be a hot candidate for head coaching positions at non-major schools that lost their head coaches to the power conferences.
A big strength that Mack would figure to have in the head coaching role at Xavier is a continued string of excellent recruiting classes. Mack has been a major force for Miller on the recruiting trail over the past few seasons, heading the efforts to sign Kenny Frease, Mark Lyons, and Brad Redford. The fervor that he has shown on the recruiting trail would not figure to dissipate once he becomes head coach.
Mack would also be helped by the logical play-out of the assistant coaches if he were to take over the head role. Miller would likely take James Whitford with him out west, and possibly director of basketball operations Travis Steele. Mack would likely be left with current lead-recruiter Emanuel “Book” Richardson—who would be less effective recruiting his ties in New York City from the exotic location of Tucson, AZ, forcing Miller to turn to a similarly connected figure from the Los Angeles or Houston scene for his staff at Arizona—and possibly Steele. The real coup would be if Mack is able to retain Director of Basketball Administration Mario Mercurio, who has been chiefly responsible for transforming Xavier’s schedule into the murderer’s row that it has become.
Miller would likely only need to add one more assistant coach from among the growing list of candidates available in the Wake Forest-Xavier-Calipari coaching tree.
With a set coaching staff, Mack could focus his attention quickly on those players that the staff would have gotten him. Miller will have left Mack with a stocked cupboard for 2009-10, with the ability to challenge for a Final Four in his first season—a situation not dissimilar to the one Buzz Peterson walked into at Marquette last season after Tom Crean left town.
It is unlikely that any current Xavier players would transfer from the program, as all of them were either recruited by Mack or came to respect him as the obvious second in command during their time on campus. Surely, some players who do not figure to be major components on the 2009-10 squad such as Brian Walsh and Andrew Taylor could consider moving on, but further departures seem extremely unlikely.
Even in the recruiting game, Mack would not lose much in the future outlook for Xavier. 2009 recruit Kevin Parrom and 2010 commitment Jordan Latham both chose Xavier because of the influence of Richardson, and the growing prestige of the Xavier program, neither of which would figure to disappear if Miller were to leave.
Question marks would begin to rise around 2010 commit J.D. Weatherspoon, as he was heavily recruited by Whitford, and chose Xavier in large part because of their proximity to home and the success of the program under Miller. While Xavier will not get any further from Weatherspoon’s home in Columbus, the perception in Weatherspoon’s mind may indicate that a Xavier program without Miller may drift them further from March success. That uncertainty, combined with the mercurial rise in Weatherspoon’s stock, would certainly draw interest from a bevy of other major programs as to the possibility of a change of heart.
The uncertainty at the head of the bench would also figure to hurt Xavier in their pursuit of 2009 recruit Kyryl Natyazkho. Natyazkho is down to a choice between Arizona State and Xavier at the moment, and would figure to be shy about pulling the trigger on a future in Norwood without knowing who the head man will be. Even if Miller were to return to Xavier, it would seem that his flirtation with Arizona may have come at the wrong time, as Natyazkho will be making his final decision in the coming weeks.
Looking even further down the road, Mack will be able to stabilize the Xavier program in recruiting, with major assistance from Richardson. Richardson’s ties with 2011 point guard Nadir Tharpe and a host of other New York City stars in 2011 and 2012 might solidify a pipeline from The Big Apple to Cincinnati.
The only other potential disadvantage that Mack could face would be a weaker position in bringing in transfers, a staple of the Xavier program’s success in recent years. Similar to the uncertainty that recruits such as Natyazkho might have, a forlorn scholarship holder from another major program might seek refuge elsewhere, rather than heading to a talent-laden and uncertain program at Xavier.
Nonetheless, if Xavier athletic director Mike Bobinski is forced to turn to Chris Mack as the next head coach of Xavier men’s basketball, it will not be a major detriment to the program. The team is too talented in 2009-10, Mack is too talented of a coach and the program’s recruiting roots are too strong for the move to result in anything but a bright future for Xavier basketball.
So back off the ledge Xavier fans. Everything is going to be alright.

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Xavier to begin series with Florida

In the latest step to increase the level of opponents in their non-conference schedule, the Xavier men's basketball team has added the University of Florida to their 2009-10 schedule according to multiple sources inside of the men's basketball program.
Already with a loaded non-conference schedule that includes trips to Kansas State, Wake Forest and Butler, home games against Louisiana State, Cincinnati and Miami (OH.), and involvement in the Old Spice Classic that includes Baylor, Florida State, Michigan, Alabama, Marquette, Iona and Creighton, Xavier's addition of the matchup with the Gators offers the ability to boost the team's strength of schedule to an elite level.
The trip to Gainesville will be the beginning of a two year home-and-home series between Xavier and Florida, an arrangement that the Xavier program has utilized in the past to secure matchups with Virginia, LSU, Auburn and Butler.
The matchup with the Gators--a team that has won two national titles in the past four years--takes such scheduling advances to a new height.
Florida potentially returns 88.4 percent of their scoring, 95.3 percent of their rebounding and 86.4 percent of their assists from a team that went 25-11 and lost in the quarterfinals of the NIT.
The only sure departure from the squad is senior guard Walter Hodge, who averaged 8.9 points, 1.5 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game in 2008-09.
Hodge, who played predominantly off the ball while 6'5 sophomore Nick Calathes handles most of the point guard duties, figures to be replaced quickly as Florida head coach Billy Donovan is bringing in 6'3" McDonald's All-American Kenny Boyton--the only McDonald's All-American to commit to an SEC school (something that figures to change with John Calipari's move to Kenticky).
Boyton is predicted to start from Day 1 in the backcourt alongside All-SEC performer Calathes, despite Calathes' recent foray into the NBA Draft. Calathes, who has not signed with an agent and can still return to school, is slated by most scouts as a second round pick if he were to remain in the draft.
When combined with the firepower that Xavier is expected to offer in 2009-10--returning 66 percent of their scoring, 76 percent of their rebounding and 70 percent of their assists from a Sweet Sixteen team that will add the backcourt duo of Jordan Crawford and Mark Lyons--the matchup in Gainesville figures to be a game between two top-10 schools.

Friday, March 27, 2009

The silver lining

The cup of coffee the morning after the end of a season is never an easy one to swallow for a head coach.
For Sean Miller, the cup of Joe might be easier to enjoy this morning, however, knowing that his Musketeers exceeded many expectations by reaching their third NCAA Sweet Sixteen in six years.
While the disappointment of squandering multiple opportunities to win their regional semifinal matchup with Pittsburgh certainly stings for Xavier, they can be comforted by a look into the future.
Simply glancing at the box score after the loss to the Panthers, one finds six underclassmen for Xavier playing double-digit minutes, including two freshmen and two sophomores.
If redshirt junior forward Derrick Brown decides to forgo the NBA and return to Xavier for his senior season then the Musketeers figure to be a legitimate title contender.
Brown is likely to return to Xavier if he is not slated to be among the top 15 picks in the 2009 NBA Draft, a position that he is likely on the verge of as the season concludes, and that he undoubtedly would have improved had Xavier been able to afford him added exposure against prime talent in a Final Four run. Brown will likely draw an invite to the NBA predaft camps, and get an opinion from NBA scouts on what he needs to work on--presumably added aggressiveness on the offensive end, among other things. Whether that recommendation comes with an endorsement of a top 15 guarantee will be the main question, however.
If Brown does return to Norwood for a shot to improve upon back-to-back trips to the NCAA second weekend, he will have a strong supporting cast.
Along with the maturing group of role players from this season's Sweet Sixteen bunch, the Musketeers are overhauling their backcourt that served as the Achilles heal of the 08-09 squad by adding two key members: Jordan Crawford, a 6'4" transfer from Indiana who averaged 9.4 points per game as a freshman with the Hoosiers in 2007-08, and Mark Lyons, an athletic 6'1" freshman defensive specialist who was forced to sit out the 08-09 season after being a partial qualifier out of high school.
When added to Kevin Parrom, a small forward that Rivals.com ranked No. 84 in the class of 2009, and whomever Miller is able to land with the final scholarship opening available (or multiple openings if any of the current scholarship players decide to transfer) the Musketeers will have a stout group of newcomers to add to a Sweet Sixteen-worthy core.
"Some people tell me that I have two of everything [on the 2008-09 team]. I don't know about that, but if you look ahead to next year, we really will have two of everything," Miller said with a smile in February of 2009.
So as the Musketeers head back to Cincinnati this afternoon, they do so with a sense of disappointment at a lost opportunity, but also hope at the potential for greater achievements in the months ahead.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Xavier comes up just short in game of inches

Every inch counts.
It is an old adage that is often applied to sports to inspire desire, but in a 60-55 loss to Pittsburgh in the Sweet Sixteen on Thursday night desire was not a problem for Xavier. Derrick Brown’s shoe size was.
With 1:20 remaining and Xavier leading 54-52 Brown chased down a ball thrown the length of the court by C.J. Anderson, appearing to give Xavier a critical possession and the ability to run the clock down.
It was not to be, as Brown’s toe touched the end line as he gathered the ball, giving Pittsburgh possession of the ball to set up heroics by Levance Fields. Fields would hit a step-back three point shot, cause a turnover and get a transition layin—a stretch that gave Pittsburgh the lead and separated them from Xavier.
“I thought the shot that Levance Fields hit says it all about a senior point guard,” Xavier head coach Sean Miller said.
For Xavier to be in a position in the final moments the Musketeers relied heavily on their familiar strength of lock-down halfcourt defense.
The Musketeers held Pittsburgh to 33.8 percent shooting on the night, including 35.5 percent in the first half when the Musketeers were able to build an eight point halftime lead. The key to holding the Panthers to 29 first-half points was containing sophomore center DeJuan Blair, who scored two points and grabbed four rebounds in the first 20 minutes.
“I tried to play him tough and be physical with him to keep him off of the boards,” Jason Love, the Xavier center who received the primary assignment on Blair said.
Blair would not remain quiet, however, as he broke out for eight points and 14 rebounds after halftime, contributing to a 9-0 run by the Panthers over the first 6:19 of the second half.
The scoring draught for the Musketeers would continue, as they shot 24.1 percent in the second half.
“It is disappointing that we could not finish the game,” C.J. Anderson said after scoring six points and grabbing eight rebounds in his final game at Xavier. “We felt like we had a good opportunity [at halftime], but we missed too many open shots.”
The misfires came after the Musketeers worked through the Pittsburgh defense, and got looks inside against Blair, but were unable to finish.
“It was a lack of execution,” Miller said. “We just missed some point-blank layups that you have to make in any game, particularly this tournament.”
While the missed layups hurt Xavier, they were still in the game in the final seconds.
“We missed layups. So what? We have missed layups before,” sophomore point guard Dante Jackson said. “I think the most disappointing thing was that we were not able to get that rebound, or that defensive stop.”
Despite the lack of lucky bounces in their final game, the Musketeers still had one of the most successful seasons in program history. They won a third straight Atlantic 10 regular season title, reached a third Sweet Sixteen in six year and won 27 games.
With only two seniors on the team—Anderson and B.J. Raymond—the Musketeers look to be among the top 10 teams in the country heading into 2009-10, and now have the desire to make up for a lost opportunity.
“It is going to motivate us to do much better next year. Guys will come back this summer hungry and ready to fight,” Jackson said. “It is the same situation as when we got beat two years ago by Ohio State [on a miraculous three point shot by Ron Lewis]. Hopefully it is a good omen.”
It doesn’t have to be that great of an omen; just good enough to make up for six inches.

Halftime: Xavier 37 Pittsburgh 29

Xavier heads into the locker room with a lead. Pittsburgh heads into the locker room with an upset point guard.
There was a scuffle in front of the Xavier bench as the teams headed off the court for the break, with the Xavier players jubilantly yelling about their eight point advantage and Levance Fields taking umbridge at the statements.
Few things:
-Fr. Graham is down here celebrating with the band at the moment.
-I am sitting in front of Bill Murray
As for the game:
-The key so far has been Xavier's ability to neutralize and defend DeJuan Blair. The big man has two points on 1-5 shooting as Xavier has doubled him and frustrated him in the post, poking away offensive rebounds from his grasp.
-The key to stopping Blair's scoring is limiting him on the glass, where he only has four rebounds--two offensive. Xavier has a 16-14 lead in offensive boards, and 8-5 on the offensive glass--two categories that they were only hoping to hang close to Pitt.
-Pitt has been squandering plenty of opportunities with turnovers. They have turned the ball over seven times to Xavier's three. They are not your garden variety travels or tossing the ball into traffic, but making the type of passes that almost crack a reporter's laptop in half (seriously). Xavier expected to be dominated in this category as well, and are getting continued great play from their point guard spot of Jackson and Holloway (2 dazzling assists).
-The one bugaboo for Xavier that has held has been their inability stop dribble penetration. Xavier has let Young (11 pts.), Fields (10 pts.) and Dixon (2 pts.) into the lane a handful of times.
-Pitt has been slowed down some in transition, save a string of five possesions where they were able to run and get six easy points.
-Derrick Brown is playing like an NBA player. 10 pts including a dunk over Blair and two deep threes.

That's all for now. Check back after the game.

Press row rumblings

Greetings from TD Banknorth Garden, an arena that despite its massive size in the center of Boston is still unheard of by many cab drivers apparently...
Some thoughts as the game is ten minutes from tip here:
-Miller may try to win this chess match with Dixon by using a variety of different looks on defense. Pitt has struggled with the press, so Xavier may go with a 3/4 court look in the early stages, or even a full court man. Also, Miller will likely turn to a 3-2 zone defense that has been effective for the Musketeers this season in limiting the opponent's looks on the interior, but also in increasing the opponent's offensive rebounds (which may be why Miller goes to a zone sparingly today).
-Look for Xavier to try to get Blair to guard on the perimeter in a variety of situations. If you don't like seeing a variety of high ball-screens, then hide your eyes when Xavier has the ball.
-As always, the first four minutes will tell a lot of the story for Xavier. They are not a team with a high-powered offense, so storming back from even a six point early deficit may be a tall order. Dante Jackson, especially has proven to indicate strong play throughout with his early play--or a tough night with weak play early. XU needs to come out strong.

Alright that is all I got for now. I need to go figure out why DeJuan Blair needed to be restrained from charging into the locker room during the national anthem.

Monday, March 23, 2009

Xavier has long checklist against Pitt.

Having witnessed a fair share of Thanksgiving Day football games, slow-pitch softball games and backyard basketball battles, I can certainly attest that the desire to win in sports never runs stronger than when the opponent is your own flesh and blood.
While Sean Miller and the University of Pittsburgh community may not share the same familial genes, there is certainly a deep-rooted desire by Miller to jump the hurdle of his alma-mater to reach his second consecutive Elite Eight at Xavier.
Getting such a win is a tall order for Miller against the top-seeded Panthers, but here are some things that the Musketeers must do in order to be successful against Pittsburgh:
Attack the high ball-screen- Xavier will have to be efficient in the ball-screen at the top of the key. The Musketeers like to start their sets with the center coming out and getting either Dante Jackson or Terrell Holloway to come off of the screen early in the shot clock. Pittsburgh likes to defend this by jumping their center, DeJuan Blair, out to impede the progress of the ballhandler. Blair, however, will often get lazy in this situation, and attempt to slow the ballhandler with only half his body instead of fully sliding in front of the point guard. If Jackson and Holloway are able to attack Blair’s half-hearted effort in this area, and pick up a few quick fouls on the perimeter, the entire shape of the game will change.
Defend the high ball-screen- Pittsburgh likes to get out and run more than they have in past years, but like most Jamie Dixon-coached teams they will run through the offense efficiently in the halfcourt, and rely on the high ball-screen as the shot clock winds down. That means that Levance Fields will often have the ball coming off of a screen from either Blair or Tyrell Biggs. Fields loves to penetrate off of this situation and give a shovel pass to Blair on the interior for a lay-in, or pull up with a crossover, stepback, fadeaway jumpshot combination that he consistently turns to. Xavier has done their most effective job of the season thus far in the NCAA Tournament against the ball-screen out top, using Jason Love and Kenny Frease to trap the ballhandler. This strategy will have to be modified against Pittsburgh, as Fields is adept at splitting a double team in such a situation, and breaking down the defense completely. Still, Love and Frease will have to be able to impede Fields’ progress consistently on the perimeter, and avoid foul trouble in such situations if Xavier hopes to slow the Pittsburgh attack.
Slow the pace of the game- Pittsburgh has the reputation of being a similar team to Xavier, predicated on defense and rebounding. While the Panthers are strong in both areas, they will take advantage of transition opportunities whenever they can get them, something they have not done in past years. Led by Blair’s ability on the defensive glass, and Fields’ comfort with the ball in the open court, Pittsburgh has the ability to turn defense into offense in a flash. In games where Dixon perceives an advantage in speed, awareness or depth, the Panthers will look to get out on the break more often, as evidenced by their wins over Connecticut. Xavier possesses the athletes and depth to play an up-tempo game, but have not come across any point guard with Fields’ ability to attack transition defenses. Also, the Musketeers’ young backcourt of Jackson and Holloway has struggled when they have been forced to play at a faster pace than they are used to, throwing the ball away consistently in such situations. The bottom line is that Xavier will not be able to beat Pittsburgh if the final score is in the 70’s as a result of the Panthers getting out on the break. Xavier does not have the ability to respond with transition baskets of its own, and are not deep enough in individual scorers to match such a point total in the halfcourt offense.
Locate DeJuan Blair and box him out- Blair is one of the NCAA’s best offensive rebounders in recent history. He is able to take up a huge amount of space, use his strength to get position and get put-backs in traffic. Xavier cannot allow Blair to collect a handful of offensive boards, and subsequently get the Musketeer frontcourt in foul trouble. Keeping Blair off of the glass, and limiting the Panthers—the best offensive rebounding team in the nation—to one shot may just be the top priority for Sean Miller and his staff heading into the game. Also, besides picking up ticky-tack fouls on the high ball-screen, Blair is prone to get overaggressive going after offensive rebounds and go over-the-back. If Xavier is able to get Blair on the bench through a series of silly fouls on the perimeter and offensive glass, they will change the whole complexion of the game and give themselves a real chance to pull the upset.
Get offensive rebounds of your own- Pittsburgh is going to get offensive rebounds. The key is to nullify their advantage in added possessions by getting a few of your own on the other end of the court. Xavier is no slouch in that department—36th in the nation—but will have to rely on Derrick Brown to play like a power forward and rebound aggressively on the offensive end, not like a small forward and roam the perimeter like he has for much of the season.
Find a three point stroke- Pittsburgh has had trouble with teams when they have shot the ball well from the perimeter (losses to Villanova and West Virginia and close calls in the first two rounds of the Tournament to East Tennessee State and Oklahoma State). Xavier—the 12th best team in the nation from three point range at 40.1 percent—certainly has the firepower to get hot from deep, as B.J. Raymond, Jackson, Holloway and Brown all have the ability to hit an open look (along with Brad Redford, who will likely see limited action against a Pittsburgh team that has the athleticism to expose Redford’s defensive deficiencies). Pittsburgh’s defense is predicated on stopping interior shots, so there will be a few open looks to be had off of kick-outs. Making such shots will open the floor for the Musketeers, allowing C.J. Anderson to slash to the basket and collect fouls on Blair and Biggs. Pittsburgh’s defense becomes significantly more difficult to operate against when an opponent can’t hit the three point shot, something Xavier will have to do to have a chance on Thursday.
Hold your own in the turnover battle­- It is unrealistic to think that Xavier is going to come out of this matchup with less turnovers than the Panthers, who rarely make miscues with Fields at the helm. Xavier will need to slow the game down, and run through their halfcourt sets, where they are much less prone to an errant pass. Xavier tends to turn the ball over more when they are forced to improvise and create from a broken play. While limiting those plays, they have to rely on a similarly stifling defensive performance to the one they turned in against Wisconsin in the second round of the Tournament. While Xavier’s halfcourt defense is built more around limiting good looks than collecting steals, if run correctly it will limit the number of points that Pittsburgh gets out of their added possessions as a result of Xavier turnovers. If Xavier is within five points in the ‘points off of turnovers’ column, or simply do not turn the ball over more than eight of nine times, they have a realistic chance of advancing to the Elite Eight.

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Silver lining for Wake?

The NCAA Tournament is always seen as one of sports’ great events because of the upsets and Cinderella stories that come to the fore every March.
On the other side of those underdog victors, however, is a power-conference giant that has been slain.
The biggest name to fall in this year’s first round was Wake Forest, who suffered an 84-69 loss to Cleveland State in the first round on Saturday.
While the loss is undoubtedly disappointing for the Demon Deacons, there may be a silver lining to the early exit.
Wake features three key players in Jeff Teague, James Johnson and Al-Farouq Aminu who have the talent to be first round NBA draft choices this June.
However, just as Final Four runs have traditionally inflated the professional stocks of college players, early upsets have often leant themselves to an extra year on campus for many players with bright NBA futures. Blake Griffin at Oklahoma, the Lopez twins at Stanford and Adam Morrison at Gonzaga are three recent examples of players who decided to come back to school to attempt to inflate their draft stock while chasing a national title.
This is good news for the Deacs, even if only one of the talented trio decides to forgo the NBA for another season in Winston-Salem.
Wake Forest was one of the 64th youngest team in college basketball in 2008-09, and would likely enter next season in the top five nationally if Teague, Johnson and Aminu were to return to join center Chase McFarland, point guard Ismael Smith, wing L.D. Williams and developing big man Tony Woods.
With the addition of freshmen Ari Stewart and C.J. Harris, the Demon Deacons would not only be senior-laden, but exceptionally talented, making for an exceptional slate of games with Duke, North Carolina and Florida State in the ACC and Xavier in the non-conference.
So Demon Deacons fans are undoubtedly crossing their fingers after a devastating loss, hoping to find a silver lining on an otherwise gloomy Sunday.

Note: Xavier and Wake Forest are slated to begin a 10 year contract with a game in the early stages of the 2009-10 season.

Xavier vs. Wisconsin -- Keys to Victory

“Mirror, Mirror on the wall…”
While Snow White and Seven Dwarfs is not the most talked about fairy tale in the NCAA Tournament, it is the most pertinent to a second round matchup between Xavier and Wisconsin.
Both teams are predicated on defense and rebounding. Both utilize a packline defense to keep opponents out of the lane. Both like to play the halfcourt offense more than get out in transition, preferring a final score in the 60’s to a shootout.
With such a low-scoring battle expected, attention to detail becomes inherently more important, and both teams need to be able to execute the gameplan for 40 minutes.
Here are five keys for each side that will go a long way in determining the outcome of this matchup (note: as stated, these teams are essentially the same profile, so you could easily switch the keys from one team to the other and, beyond changing a few names, not bat an eyelash):
Wisconsin
Stopping dribble penetration
- The Badgers packline scheme routinely takes away the high ball-screen with help from the big men on the guard. This was evident in the Badgers’ first round matchup with Florida State, where the Seminoles were relegated to isolation plays for the majority of the game, abandoning their bread-and-butter of the high screen-and-roll. Xavier likes to begin their offense with the high ball-screen, but have proven to be effective in set plays. The one Xavier player that has consistently been able to penetrate defenses has been C.J. Anderson. If Wisconsin can stop Anderson from penetrating, drawing fouls and kicking out to open shooters, they will have a good chance of advancing.
Getting dribble penetration- Xavier is attempting to do the same things defensively as Wisconsin, but the Badgers have a point guard—Trevon Hughes—who can get into the paint off of the dribble, unlike the Musketeers. Hughes was limited in his penetration opportunities against Florida State because of the outstanding effort from Seminole point guard Toney Douglas. Hughes did come up with a game-winning drive, however, and will likely get similar opportunities against the often unreliable point guard defenders for Xavier.
Neutralizing the rebounding battle- That Badgers have one player—Jon Leuer—in their regular rotation taller than 6’8,” and average 12.4 less rebounds per game than Xavier. While the Badgers do not rebound on the offensive end much, they are still the fifth best team in the country at rebounding defensively. The question will be whether or not the Badgers can grab offensive rebounds themselves, and match what is expected to be 3-4 extra possessions for the Musketeers that result from a decided height advantage and the subsequent offensive boards. Wisconsin can’t afford to allow Xavier to get second opportunities, and if they are able get an equal number of possessions as the Musketeers, the effectiveness of their halfcourt set will give them a good chance at moving on.
Dominating the turnover matchup- The Badgers are incredibly efficient on the offensive end, compiling a 1.2 to one assist to turnover ratio as a team. They value the basketball, and probe a defense for a full 35 second every time down the floor. If Xavier figures to get added opportunities because of their rebounding edge, Wisconsin is likely to cancel that advantage out by being in single digits in the turnover column—something Xavier has only done five times this season—and taking the ball away from their opponent, something they are the seventh best in the nation at doing. Valuing the basketball, and possibly getting easy lay-ins as a result of poor Musketeer passing, will likely give Wisconsin a critical boost of five to 10 points.
Three point shooting- The Badgers get 30.6 percent of their points from behind the three point arc. However, as evidenced by the first half against Florida State, they can stagnate offensively without the long-range shot. Jason Bohannon, Hughes and Marcus Landry all shoot it at 37 percent from deep, and will figure to get some open looks against a Xavier team that defend inside-out. If the Badger shooters, particularly Bohannon, are able to get hot from three they give Wisconsin one of its few opportunities to go on an extended scoring run. Such a run figures to be the difference in a low-scoring game, and could be the separating factor for Badgers.
Xavier
Getting an early lead
- Xavier has struggled in games where they have to fight out of a hole, and force three point shots instead of merely running their offense. In a game that is unlikely to swing more than a handful of points in either direction, Xavier will be able to play much differently if they are holding an advantage on the scoreboard in the second half. A lead allows them to score from the free throw line more often—something that rarely happens against Wisconsin—and run their offensive sets. Sophomore Dante Jackson and freshman point guard Terrell Holloway have gotten into trouble when they attempt to play too quickly, something the comfort of a lead allows them to get away from.
Getting easy baskets- Wisconsin prides themselves on not allowing a basket that will energize their opponent. They try to foul in transition to thwart dunks, force midrange jump shots rather than anything around the rim and almost never get caught allowing run-outs by opponents. If Xavier can find a way to get Jamel McLean or Derrick Brown to utilize their athleticism on a set play, put-back dunk or transition basket, they will have achieved what many Wisconsin opponents have found to be impossible.
Brad Redford- Redford is often not quick enough defensively to remain on the floor against quality opponents, but the slow-down, halfcourt style that Wisconsin deploys allows the Musketeers to hide the defensive shortcomings of their 6’0” freshman. This means that the Redford’s lightning-quick release and range out to 30 feet will be on the floor for 10-15 minutes against the Badgers. In what figures to be a game played decided single digits, giving Redford a few feet of space on the perimeter three or four times could be the difference maker.
Three point shooting- Beyond simply Redford’s contribution from the perimeter, Dante Jackson and B.J. Raymond need to be able to take advantage of the opportunities that will be available for them off of kick-outs. Wisconsin’s defense is built around limiting points in the paint, and allowing the three point shot—ideally with some contest on the shooter. This means that Jackson and Raymond will likely be forced to shoot six or seven three point shots apiece. If the duo combines for a 50 percent clip, Xavier will be tough to beat.
Point guard play- Xavier has gotten productive minutes from Jackson and Holloway over the last three games, including Jackson’s breakout performance against Portland State on Friday. Both guards will have to be able to run the offense effectively against an in-your-face defense for Xavier to score. With Xavier’s customary high-screen expected to be taken away, Jackson and Holloway will have to get their team into the offensive sets, and make smart passes for Xavier to be successful. If the point guards can handle the pressure, and limit their turnovers, they will have sured up their team’s biggest weakness.

Xavier 77 Portland State 59

The 2008-09 season has been a roller coaster ride for Dante Jackson.
Forced to play out of position at the point guard spot, the sophomore has struggled through inconsistent play on both ends of the floor, multiple benchings and countless tongue lashings from head coach Sean Miller.
Nonetheless, Jackson has persevered, and found himself back in the starting point guard role in Xavier’s first round NCAA Tournament matchup with Portland State.
Jackson turned in his best game of the season—13 points, three assists, one turnover and four steals—to lead Xavier to a 77-59 win.
In what figured to be a decided mismatch in favor of Portland State at the point guard spot, Jackson outplayed Big West Player of the Year Jeremiah Dominguez, limiting the senior to 13 points—none in the second half—three assists, one turnover and four steals.
“Dante, to me, is a winner,” Xavier head coach Sean Miller said. “He knows for our team to [win] he's got to be a hawk on defense, guardingother good players at different positions, [which he did tonight].”
Jackson’s ability to neutralize Dominguez on the perimeter forced Portland State to rely on their three point shot, which Xavier contested effectively, holding the Vikings to 38.1 percent from three.
Meanwhile, Xavier continued their efficient three point shooting, as Jackson and B.J. Raymond combined for six three point shots, part of an 8-21 effort for the Musketeers.
The three point shot for Xavier was opened up by the resurgence of small forward C.J. Anderson, who scored 14 points after being held to 0-9 shooting in a 55-53 loss to Temple in the Atlantic 10 semifinal on March 13. Anderson’s ability to get into the lane, attract attention and score or create for teammates allowed the Musketeers to shoot 53.7 percent from the floor.
“C.J., any time he is aggressive he makes our team better,” Raymond said of his fellow senior. “He's getting shots for the shooters, but he's also puttingfouls on the other team… He's a pit bull and we appreciate it.”
Anderson was one of four Musketeers in double figures, as Xavier moved the ball effectively, running their offense with a season-low seven turnovers.
Everybody has confidence in the other players' ability to put it on the floor or make the right decisions,” Raymond said. “So we love to share the ball and see our teammates succeed.”
With the collective mentality offensively, and the added advantage of a deeper bench, Xavier was able to separate themselves in the second half with a 13-0 run after the 13:14 mark.
“I thought our defense and size really started to wear them down,” Miller said. “A lot of times if you're a good defensive team you can really get to the other team's heart… in the middle of the second half and I thought that really happened [tonight].”
Xavier will need to sustain a similar level of defensive intensity in their second round matchup with Wisconsin in what figures to be a low-scoring defensive battle.
But if they are able to get heroics from role players like Jackson, the Musketeers will look to advance to their third Sweet Sixteen in the last six years. They just have to hope that the drop-off does not follow the crescendo on the Jackson roller coaster.

Friday, March 20, 2009

Stopping penetratoin, hot start are key for XU

If Xavier is to have success in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in Boise, Id. on Friday night, the Musketeers will have to avoid a case of déjà vu.
The Musketeers take on an undersized, guard-oriented team in Portland State, and as senior shooting guard B.J. Raymond pointed out Thursday in the team’s pregame press conference, the Vikings are similar to the Duquesne and Butler teams that tripped up the Musketeers earlier this season.
While all three teams get a third or more of their points from beyond the three point arc, Xavier’s main issues against Duquesne and Butler came in defending the point guard position. The ability of Aaron Jackson for Duquesne and Shelvin Mack for Butler to get by the Xavier point guards and collapse the Musketeer defense was the key to each of those teams getting open three point looks.
In addition to opening up perimeter opportunities, the penetration forced Xavier’s big men into foul trouble, as Xavier center Jason Love played a combined 40 minutes in the two earlier losses because of foul trouble.
If Xavier is able to keep Portland State point guard Jeremiah Dominguez out of the lane consistently, they will have taken a huge step towards advancing to the second round of the Tournament for the third straight season.
Aside from defending Dominguez, Xavier must be able to come out of the gates strong.
While it is a goal of any team to jump out to an early lead, Xavier’s style of play makes an early lead a near necessity. With a cushion in the early going, they can slow the game down, and play a defensive battle. As the game progresses, holding a lead will create more foul shooting opportunities for the Musketeers, something that was a key to their early season success yet has dried up in their recent swoon—losing five of their last 10 games.
If Xavier is able to avoid digging themselves a hole in the first four minutes of the game—as they have done in five of their seven losses this season—the possibility of Portland State becoming a Cinderella story will be greatly diminished.

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Matchups will be key if XU hopes to advance

On this selection Sunday, there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Xavier men’s basketball team.
They have lost five of their last ten games, and struggled both on the offensive (against Temple in the A-10 semifinals) and defensive (losses to Duquesne, Dayton, Charlotte and Richmond) ends.
It is useful, though, to take a step back and look at the Musketeers’’ strengths and weaknesses:

Strengths
Rebounding- Xavier is 20th in the nation at 42.7 rebounds per game, a statistic aided by their starting lineup featuring five players 6’5” or taller and their frontcourt depth.
Meaning- Maryland, Boston College and BYU could give Xavier trouble early because they can match their size. Generally, however, the Musketeers will need to take advantage of an advantage on the glass in the first round game to move on.
Defense (generally) - Xavier is 19th nationally in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive rankings, led mainly by their stout interior defense.
Meaning- Xavier will defend in a similar way against any team (Sean Miller will rarely ever go zone). Xavier will have to win close games throughout the tournament, as they will never be a team to blow anyone out.
Weaknesses
Point guard play- Xavier starts a shooting guard at the point, and brings an often unreliable freshman off the bench to relieve him. This has led to 15 turnovers per game from the Musketeers and frequent stagnation against pressuring defenses.
Meaning- Xavier does not matchup well against high-pressure teams. Teams like North Dakota St., Siena, BYU, Boston College and Creighton would be difficult first round opponents for Xavier. Defending penetration­- ­Teams with multiple guards who are able to take Xavier’s bigger, slower guards off the dribble have consistently given Xavier trouble. It has created easy layups, foul trouble for the big men and open three point looks.
Meaning- Xavier does not match up well with guard-oriented teams, who are predicated on their point guard creating. Teams like VCU, St. Mary, Boston College, Michigan and even Maryland would be tough first round draws for the Musketeers.

In March, it is all about the matchups, really, and Xavier could have matchup problems against a number of their early opponents. However, they are not alone in this sentiment, as the majority of NCAA teams, save possibly the top seeds, are in the same boat. Nonetheless, the chinks in the Musketeers’ armor could manifest themselves in an early exit if the Selection committee is unkind to Xavier.

Friday, March 13, 2009

Temple 55 XU 53

For the fifth time in 10 games the Xavier Musketeers will board the team bus after a tough loss away from Cintas Center and return home. The only difference is they know the next time they go through this routine it will be their last.
The sad march this time came after a 55-53 loss to Temple in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, NJ.
While defensive lapses had been the common theme in the Musketeers previous four A-10 losses, the defense was not the issue on this night, as the Owls were held to 35.3 percent shooting and went 4-17 from three point range.
Instead, Xavier’s shortcomings came on the offensive end, where they struggled to a 34.5 percent shooting night.
“We put ourselves in a hole because of the way that we played on offense,” Miller said.
While the defensive effort kept the Musketeers in a back-and-forth battle, the Owls were able to turn a three point defecit into a 51-47 lead with 1:27 remaining in large part because of a 5:57 scoreless streak by the Musketeers.
While Xavier was able to get some production from senior B.J. Raymond (18 points) and junior Derrick Brown (19 points, 15 in the first half), they failed to receive much of a boost from their small forward and center positions. Senior forward C.J. Anderson failed to score for the first time this season, going 0-9 from the field, and
“C.J. has really struggled over the last month. That puts a lot of pressure on our offense. When he plays well, we are a much different team,” said Miller.
Anderson’s struggles were not alleviated by the center position, where junior Jason Love and freshman Kenny Frease combined for four points on 2-10 shooting.
“Those guys have done a good job as a 1-2 punch, but recently we have not gotten that production, and it certainly puts a lot of pressure on our offense,” Miller said.
A large part of Anderson and the center positioin’s scoring this season has come from the free throw line, a place where Xavier has struggled to get to in recent losses.
The Musketeers have shot 19 free throws per game over the last 10 contests, including a 5-9 performance on Friday night. In their five loses over that stretch, the number has been slightly lower, at 18.8 attempts per game.
This is an alarming statistic for the Musketeers, as without a stable point guard presence, or a pure scorer, they often have to rely on frequent trips to the free throw line to provide the requisite offense.

Temple vs. Xavier in A-10 semis

Greetings from Atlantic City!
Some rambling thoughts before today’s semifinal between Xavier and Temple:
-A big key will be the health of Temple power forward Lavoy Allen. Allen sprained his right ankle in practice early in the week, and has been less than 100 percent all week. Despite playing on a wounded wheel, Allen still grabbed 13 rebounds on Thursday in the semifinal against Saint Joseph’s. If Allen is not able to repeat such a performance less than 24 hours later, Xavier—namely Derrick Brown—will be able to score inside, and utilize their height advantage to the fullest to grab extra possessions.
-Don’t believe the hype you hear about this being a home crowd for Temple. 300 people do not constitute a home crowd. Just ask the Florida Marlins.
-The matchup to watch is between B.J. Raymond and Dionte Christmas. If Raymond is able to limit Christmas’ perimeter shooting as he did the first time around, in a Xavier win, then the Temple has to turn to alternative forms of offense. While Juan Fernandez, Sergio Olmos and Ryan Brooks have all shown that they can score throughout the A-10 schedule this year, none has a favorable matchup against the Xavier defense. Even if Raymond does not match his scoring output from the first time around, merely holding Christmas to single digits—thus continuing the Temple senior’s recent shooting struggles—will go a long way towards a Xavier win.
-Atlantic City is a great City to travel to, but not for a basketball tournament. The arena is old, decrepit, and lacking energy.
Overall, my prediction is Xavier 68, Temple 63