Monday, March 23, 2009

Xavier has long checklist against Pitt.

Having witnessed a fair share of Thanksgiving Day football games, slow-pitch softball games and backyard basketball battles, I can certainly attest that the desire to win in sports never runs stronger than when the opponent is your own flesh and blood.
While Sean Miller and the University of Pittsburgh community may not share the same familial genes, there is certainly a deep-rooted desire by Miller to jump the hurdle of his alma-mater to reach his second consecutive Elite Eight at Xavier.
Getting such a win is a tall order for Miller against the top-seeded Panthers, but here are some things that the Musketeers must do in order to be successful against Pittsburgh:
Attack the high ball-screen- Xavier will have to be efficient in the ball-screen at the top of the key. The Musketeers like to start their sets with the center coming out and getting either Dante Jackson or Terrell Holloway to come off of the screen early in the shot clock. Pittsburgh likes to defend this by jumping their center, DeJuan Blair, out to impede the progress of the ballhandler. Blair, however, will often get lazy in this situation, and attempt to slow the ballhandler with only half his body instead of fully sliding in front of the point guard. If Jackson and Holloway are able to attack Blair’s half-hearted effort in this area, and pick up a few quick fouls on the perimeter, the entire shape of the game will change.
Defend the high ball-screen- Pittsburgh likes to get out and run more than they have in past years, but like most Jamie Dixon-coached teams they will run through the offense efficiently in the halfcourt, and rely on the high ball-screen as the shot clock winds down. That means that Levance Fields will often have the ball coming off of a screen from either Blair or Tyrell Biggs. Fields loves to penetrate off of this situation and give a shovel pass to Blair on the interior for a lay-in, or pull up with a crossover, stepback, fadeaway jumpshot combination that he consistently turns to. Xavier has done their most effective job of the season thus far in the NCAA Tournament against the ball-screen out top, using Jason Love and Kenny Frease to trap the ballhandler. This strategy will have to be modified against Pittsburgh, as Fields is adept at splitting a double team in such a situation, and breaking down the defense completely. Still, Love and Frease will have to be able to impede Fields’ progress consistently on the perimeter, and avoid foul trouble in such situations if Xavier hopes to slow the Pittsburgh attack.
Slow the pace of the game- Pittsburgh has the reputation of being a similar team to Xavier, predicated on defense and rebounding. While the Panthers are strong in both areas, they will take advantage of transition opportunities whenever they can get them, something they have not done in past years. Led by Blair’s ability on the defensive glass, and Fields’ comfort with the ball in the open court, Pittsburgh has the ability to turn defense into offense in a flash. In games where Dixon perceives an advantage in speed, awareness or depth, the Panthers will look to get out on the break more often, as evidenced by their wins over Connecticut. Xavier possesses the athletes and depth to play an up-tempo game, but have not come across any point guard with Fields’ ability to attack transition defenses. Also, the Musketeers’ young backcourt of Jackson and Holloway has struggled when they have been forced to play at a faster pace than they are used to, throwing the ball away consistently in such situations. The bottom line is that Xavier will not be able to beat Pittsburgh if the final score is in the 70’s as a result of the Panthers getting out on the break. Xavier does not have the ability to respond with transition baskets of its own, and are not deep enough in individual scorers to match such a point total in the halfcourt offense.
Locate DeJuan Blair and box him out- Blair is one of the NCAA’s best offensive rebounders in recent history. He is able to take up a huge amount of space, use his strength to get position and get put-backs in traffic. Xavier cannot allow Blair to collect a handful of offensive boards, and subsequently get the Musketeer frontcourt in foul trouble. Keeping Blair off of the glass, and limiting the Panthers—the best offensive rebounding team in the nation—to one shot may just be the top priority for Sean Miller and his staff heading into the game. Also, besides picking up ticky-tack fouls on the high ball-screen, Blair is prone to get overaggressive going after offensive rebounds and go over-the-back. If Xavier is able to get Blair on the bench through a series of silly fouls on the perimeter and offensive glass, they will change the whole complexion of the game and give themselves a real chance to pull the upset.
Get offensive rebounds of your own- Pittsburgh is going to get offensive rebounds. The key is to nullify their advantage in added possessions by getting a few of your own on the other end of the court. Xavier is no slouch in that department—36th in the nation—but will have to rely on Derrick Brown to play like a power forward and rebound aggressively on the offensive end, not like a small forward and roam the perimeter like he has for much of the season.
Find a three point stroke- Pittsburgh has had trouble with teams when they have shot the ball well from the perimeter (losses to Villanova and West Virginia and close calls in the first two rounds of the Tournament to East Tennessee State and Oklahoma State). Xavier—the 12th best team in the nation from three point range at 40.1 percent—certainly has the firepower to get hot from deep, as B.J. Raymond, Jackson, Holloway and Brown all have the ability to hit an open look (along with Brad Redford, who will likely see limited action against a Pittsburgh team that has the athleticism to expose Redford’s defensive deficiencies). Pittsburgh’s defense is predicated on stopping interior shots, so there will be a few open looks to be had off of kick-outs. Making such shots will open the floor for the Musketeers, allowing C.J. Anderson to slash to the basket and collect fouls on Blair and Biggs. Pittsburgh’s defense becomes significantly more difficult to operate against when an opponent can’t hit the three point shot, something Xavier will have to do to have a chance on Thursday.
Hold your own in the turnover battle­- It is unrealistic to think that Xavier is going to come out of this matchup with less turnovers than the Panthers, who rarely make miscues with Fields at the helm. Xavier will need to slow the game down, and run through their halfcourt sets, where they are much less prone to an errant pass. Xavier tends to turn the ball over more when they are forced to improvise and create from a broken play. While limiting those plays, they have to rely on a similarly stifling defensive performance to the one they turned in against Wisconsin in the second round of the Tournament. While Xavier’s halfcourt defense is built more around limiting good looks than collecting steals, if run correctly it will limit the number of points that Pittsburgh gets out of their added possessions as a result of Xavier turnovers. If Xavier is within five points in the ‘points off of turnovers’ column, or simply do not turn the ball over more than eight of nine times, they have a realistic chance of advancing to the Elite Eight.

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