Xavier vs. Wisconsin -- Keys to Victory

“Mirror, Mirror on the wall…”
While Snow White and Seven Dwarfs is not the most talked about fairy tale in the NCAA Tournament, it is the most pertinent to a second round matchup between Xavier and Wisconsin.
Both teams are predicated on defense and rebounding. Both utilize a packline defense to keep opponents out of the lane. Both like to play the halfcourt offense more than get out in transition, preferring a final score in the 60’s to a shootout.
With such a low-scoring battle expected, attention to detail becomes inherently more important, and both teams need to be able to execute the gameplan for 40 minutes.
Here are five keys for each side that will go a long way in determining the outcome of this matchup (note: as stated, these teams are essentially the same profile, so you could easily switch the keys from one team to the other and, beyond changing a few names, not bat an eyelash):
Wisconsin
Stopping dribble penetration- The Badgers packline scheme routinely takes away the high ball-screen with help from the big men on the guard. This was evident in the Badgers’ first round matchup with Florida State, where the Seminoles were relegated to isolation plays for the majority of the game, abandoning their bread-and-butter of the high screen-and-roll. Xavier likes to begin their offense with the high ball-screen, but have proven to be effective in set plays. The one Xavier player that has consistently been able to penetrate defenses has been C.J. Anderson. If Wisconsin can stop Anderson from penetrating, drawing fouls and kicking out to open shooters, they will have a good chance of advancing.
Getting dribble penetration- Xavier is attempting to do the same things defensively as Wisconsin, but the Badgers have a point guard—Trevon Hughes—who can get into the paint off of the dribble, unlike the Musketeers. Hughes was limited in his penetration opportunities against Florida State because of the outstanding effort from Seminole point guard Toney Douglas. Hughes did come up with a game-winning drive, however, and will likely get similar opportunities against the often unreliable point guard defenders for Xavier.
Neutralizing the rebounding battle- That Badgers have one player—Jon Leuer—in their regular rotation taller than 6’8,” and average 12.4 less rebounds per game than Xavier. While the Badgers do not rebound on the offensive end much, they are still the fifth best team in the country at rebounding defensively. The question will be whether or not the Badgers can grab offensive rebounds themselves, and match what is expected to be 3-4 extra possessions for the Musketeers that result from a decided height advantage and the subsequent offensive boards. Wisconsin can’t afford to allow Xavier to get second opportunities, and if they are able get an equal number of possessions as the Musketeers, the effectiveness of their halfcourt set will give them a good chance at moving on.
Dominating the turnover matchup- The Badgers are incredibly efficient on the offensive end, compiling a 1.2 to one assist to turnover ratio as a team. They value the basketball, and probe a defense for a full 35 second every time down the floor. If Xavier figures to get added opportunities because of their rebounding edge, Wisconsin is likely to cancel that advantage out by being in single digits in the turnover column—something Xavier has only done five times this season—and taking the ball away from their opponent, something they are the seventh best in the nation at doing. Valuing the basketball, and possibly getting easy lay-ins as a result of poor Musketeer passing, will likely give Wisconsin a critical boost of five to 10 points.
Three point shooting- The Badgers get 30.6 percent of their points from behind the three point arc. However, as evidenced by the first half against Florida State, they can stagnate offensively without the long-range shot. Jason Bohannon, Hughes and Marcus Landry all shoot it at 37 percent from deep, and will figure to get some open looks against a Xavier team that defend inside-out. If the Badger shooters, particularly Bohannon, are able to get hot from three they give Wisconsin one of its few opportunities to go on an extended scoring run. Such a run figures to be the difference in a low-scoring game, and could be the separating factor for Badgers.
Xavier
Getting an early lead- Xavier has struggled in games where they have to fight out of a hole, and force three point shots instead of merely running their offense. In a game that is unlikely to swing more than a handful of points in either direction, Xavier will be able to play much differently if they are holding an advantage on the scoreboard in the second half. A lead allows them to score from the free throw line more often—something that rarely happens against Wisconsin—and run their offensive sets. Sophomore Dante Jackson and freshman point guard Terrell Holloway have gotten into trouble when they attempt to play too quickly, something the comfort of a lead allows them to get away from.
Getting easy baskets- Wisconsin prides themselves on not allowing a basket that will energize their opponent. They try to foul in transition to thwart dunks, force midrange jump shots rather than anything around the rim and almost never get caught allowing run-outs by opponents. If Xavier can find a way to get Jamel McLean or Derrick Brown to utilize their athleticism on a set play, put-back dunk or transition basket, they will have achieved what many Wisconsin opponents have found to be impossible.
Brad Redford- Redford is often not quick enough defensively to remain on the floor against quality opponents, but the slow-down, halfcourt style that Wisconsin deploys allows the Musketeers to hide the defensive shortcomings of their 6’0” freshman. This means that the Redford’s lightning-quick release and range out to 30 feet will be on the floor for 10-15 minutes against the Badgers. In what figures to be a game played decided single digits, giving Redford a few feet of space on the perimeter three or four times could be the difference maker.
Three point shooting- Beyond simply Redford’s contribution from the perimeter, Dante Jackson and B.J. Raymond need to be able to take advantage of the opportunities that will be available for them off of kick-outs. Wisconsin’s defense is built around limiting points in the paint, and allowing the three point shot—ideally with some contest on the shooter. This means that Jackson and Raymond will likely be forced to shoot six or seven three point shots apiece. If the duo combines for a 50 percent clip, Xavier will be tough to beat.
Point guard play- Xavier has gotten productive minutes from Jackson and Holloway over the last three games, including Jackson’s breakout performance against Portland State on Friday. Both guards will have to be able to run the offense effectively against an in-your-face defense for Xavier to score. With Xavier’s customary high-screen expected to be taken away, Jackson and Holloway will have to get their team into the offensive sets, and make smart passes for Xavier to be successful. If the point guards can handle the pressure, and limit their turnovers, they will have sured up their team’s biggest weakness.