Taking a logical look at what Xavier would be left with after Miller

Reports are circulating today that Sean Miller is on a plane to Albuquerque, NM to discuss accepting the head coaching job at the University of Arizona. The job would seem to suit Miller’s desires for a big-time program in a winnable conference (non-Big East), that has the commitment to basketball as the primary objective.
If Miller were to take the position, something I would put as a probability at this point, he would not completely debilitate the Xavier program; much the opposite.
Xavier already has a head-coach-in-waiting in Chris Mack, who has held the title of ‘next-Xavier-assistant-to-become-a-successful-coach’ for a few years now. "Chris is ready to become a head coach. He has a great basketball mind and is an excellent recruiter," was Miller’s assessment of Mack in preseason media guide.
The pedigree as a successful head coach at Mt. Notre Dame High School, on the Xavier staff from 1999-2001, on the Wake Forest staff for three years after that, and with Miller at Xavier ever since has set Mack up for an opportunity as a head coach. There were even whispers this offseason that Xavier would not be able to keep Mack, as he would be a hot candidate for head coaching positions at non-major schools that lost their head coaches to the power conferences.
A big strength that Mack would figure to have in the head coaching role at Xavier is a continued string of excellent recruiting classes. Mack has been a major force for Miller on the recruiting trail over the past few seasons, heading the efforts to sign Kenny Frease, Mark Lyons, and Brad Redford. The fervor that he has shown on the recruiting trail would not figure to dissipate once he becomes head coach.
Mack would also be helped by the logical play-out of the assistant coaches if he were to take over the head role. Miller would likely take James Whitford with him out west, and possibly director of basketball operations Travis Steele. Mack would likely be left with current lead-recruiter Emanuel “Book” Richardson—who would be less effective recruiting his ties in New York City from the exotic location of Tucson, AZ, forcing Miller to turn to a similarly connected figure from the Los Angeles or Houston scene for his staff at Arizona—and possibly Steele. The real coup would be if Mack is able to retain Director of Basketball Administration Mario Mercurio, who has been chiefly responsible for transforming Xavier’s schedule into the murderer’s row that it has become.
Miller would likely only need to add one more assistant coach from among the growing list of candidates available in the Wake Forest-Xavier-Calipari coaching tree.
With a set coaching staff, Mack could focus his attention quickly on those players that the staff would have gotten him. Miller will have left Mack with a stocked cupboard for 2009-10, with the ability to challenge for a Final Four in his first season—a situation not dissimilar to the one Buzz Peterson walked into at Marquette last season after Tom Crean left town.
It is unlikely that any current Xavier players would transfer from the program, as all of them were either recruited by Mack or came to respect him as the obvious second in command during their time on campus. Surely, some players who do not figure to be major components on the 2009-10 squad such as Brian Walsh and Andrew Taylor could consider moving on, but further departures seem extremely unlikely.
Even in the recruiting game, Mack would not lose much in the future outlook for Xavier. 2009 recruit Kevin Parrom and 2010 commitment Jordan Latham both chose Xavier because of the influence of Richardson, and the growing prestige of the Xavier program, neither of which would figure to disappear if Miller were to leave.
Question marks would begin to rise around 2010 commit J.D. Weatherspoon, as he was heavily recruited by Whitford, and chose Xavier in large part because of their proximity to home and the success of the program under Miller. While Xavier will not get any further from Weatherspoon’s home in Columbus, the perception in Weatherspoon’s mind may indicate that a Xavier program without Miller may drift them further from March success. That uncertainty, combined with the mercurial rise in Weatherspoon’s stock, would certainly draw interest from a bevy of other major programs as to the possibility of a change of heart.
The uncertainty at the head of the bench would also figure to hurt Xavier in their pursuit of 2009 recruit Kyryl Natyazkho. Natyazkho is down to a choice between Arizona State and Xavier at the moment, and would figure to be shy about pulling the trigger on a future in Norwood without knowing who the head man will be. Even if Miller were to return to Xavier, it would seem that his flirtation with Arizona may have come at the wrong time, as Natyazkho will be making his final decision in the coming weeks.
Looking even further down the road, Mack will be able to stabilize the Xavier program in recruiting, with major assistance from Richardson. Richardson’s ties with 2011 point guard Nadir Tharpe and a host of other New York City stars in 2011 and 2012 might solidify a pipeline from The Big Apple to Cincinnati.
The only other potential disadvantage that Mack could face would be a weaker position in bringing in transfers, a staple of the Xavier program’s success in recent years. Similar to the uncertainty that recruits such as Natyazkho might have, a forlorn scholarship holder from another major program might seek refuge elsewhere, rather than heading to a talent-laden and uncertain program at Xavier.
Nonetheless, if Xavier athletic director Mike Bobinski is forced to turn to Chris Mack as the next head coach of Xavier men’s basketball, it will not be a major detriment to the program. The team is too talented in 2009-10, Mack is too talented of a coach and the program’s recruiting roots are too strong for the move to result in anything but a bright future for Xavier basketball.
So back off the ledge Xavier fans. Everything is going to be alright.