Xavier vs. Memphis preview

A matchup between Xavier and Memphis provides and interesting convergence of styles, particularly when the Tigers have the ball. The Tigers run the dribble-drive-motion offense, predicated on beating a defender off of the dribble, and then either taking the shot or passing to a teammate whose man has had to come over to help out. This is interesting against Xavier since the Musketeers' pack-line defense is based upon putting defenders in help position (or "gaps" as they call it), and then recovering onto their man once he gets the ball.
If Xavier is able to stop the Memphis penetration effectively with commited help defense (not "Casper the Ghost" help defense as Sean Miller called their effort against Tyrone Kent and Toledo on Nov. 17), then the Tigers halfcourt offense will be forced to rely on three-point shooting, offensive rebounding and transition baskets. Forcing Memphis to become a three-point shooting team would look to be advantageous for Xavier, as the Tigers are only shooting 23.8 percent (20-84) from deep this season. Of course with missed three point field goals comes long rebounds, and the Tigers have been adept and hauling in those rebounds in their first four games of the young season, hauling in 41.3 rebounds per game, 14.8 of which coming on the offensive end.
With the inconsistency by the Tigers in the halfcourt set, a large portion of their points come in transition. Memphis' long athletic defensive athletes have forced 21.5 turnovers per game, a scary proposition for a Xavier team averaging 18.5 turnovers per game with a young backcourt. There will undoubtedly be a few breakaway dunks by the Tigers mixed into the game, but limiting these transition baskets, and their mental effect on his young team, will be a key for Sean Miller and his staff.
Like almost any game for Xavier, the end result will come down to how they defend, and how they get to the free throw line. As a result of the defensive scheme, and style of play that Miller likes to run, the number of free throws that Xavier shoots, and the field goal percentage of their opponent are consistently the two most important factors in any Musketeer game. When Xavier plays tough opponents these two areas become all the more important. For instance, Xavier did these things well in big wins over Indiana (held them to 38.5 percent shooting and went to the line 30 times compared to the Hoosier's 16), Massachusetts (held the Minutemen to 37 percent shooting while getting to the line 34 times to Umass' 28), Georgia (allowed the bulldogs to hang around with 46.4 percent shooting, but dominated the game with 33 free throws to the Bulldogs five) and Purdue (28.8 percent shooting and a 33 to 23 free throw advantage) in 2007-08. Conversely, the Musketeers struggle when they allow teams to shoot well and don't to the free throw line themselves. Bad losses to Miami (44.4 percent shooting and a RedHawk free throw advantage of 15 to 14), Arizona State (59.5 percent shooting and a Sun Devil free throw advantage of 22 to 15) and Temple (50.9 percent shooting and a 14 to 13 advantage in free throw shooting for the Owls) in 2007-08 featured breakdowns in these areas.
While the 2008-09 Musketeers have a very different team composition, the principles of the system in which they play remain the same. The Musketeers win over Virginia Tech on Friday featured a 26-14 free throw advantage for Xavier, and 38.3 percent shooting from the Hokies. Thursday's win over Missouri featured a 41-31 free throw advantage for Xavier and 41.7 percent shooting by the Tigers.
The free throw shooting on this Xavier team is especially important in the game against Memphis, as the Tigers are not especially deep up front, so trips to the free throw line aid Xavier in thinning out the Memphis lineup, slowing the tempo of the game and, obviously, putting easy points on the board. The field goal percentage is simply a stat that all pack-line defense teams focus on, and will always be a constant key in any game involving Sean Miller on the sidelines.
So as you are watching Xavier tonight (7:30 p.m. on ESPN2) check out the free throw shooting and field goal percentages of the teams. If Xavier is outshooting the Tigers by 10 free throws and holding Memphis under 40 percent shooting for the game at the end of the night, then the youthful Musketeers will likely be flying back across the Atlantic with some extra hardware in tow. If Memphis consistently gets easy baskets in transition, and stays out of foul trouble, however, then Xavier could be in for a long night.